Xiaomi (SEHK:1810) Is Down 6.1% After Buyback And Goldman Endorsement Has The Bull Case Changed?

• On 6 January 2026, Xiaomi repurchased 3.9 million Type B shares, as disclosed in a Hong Kong Stock Exchange filing, while Goldman Sachs highlighted the company as a top large-cap name in China citing AI and regulatory tailwinds.
• This combination of a sizeable buyback and a high-profile endorsement underscores growing institutional confidence in Xiaomi’s capital allocation and long-term technology roadmap.
• Next, we’ll examine how Xiaomi’s latest share repurchase could influence its investment narrative around premiumization, AI investment and global expansion.

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Xiaomi Investment Narrative Recap

To own Xiaomi, you need to believe in its shift toward higher value devices and connected ecosystems, supported by disciplined capital allocation. The latest HK$3.9 million Type B share repurchase, combined with Goldman Sachs’ positive stance, strengthens the near term catalyst around confidence in AI and premiumization, but does not materially change the key risk that heavy R&D and EV spending may weigh on margins if new lines scale slower than expected.

Among recent developments, Xiaomi’s HK$42.6 billion follow on equity offering in March 2025 stands out beside the current buyback. Together, these moves highlight how the company is actively reshaping its capital structure while continuing to fund AI, chip and EV investments that underpin the premiumization and global expansion narrative.

Yet while these steps may support Xiaomi’s story, investors should still watch the risk that rising AI and EV R&D spends could...

Read the full narrative on Xiaomi (it's free!)

Xiaomi's narrative projects CN¥765.2 billion revenue and CN¥69.6 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 21.3% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about CN¥32.4 billion from CN¥37.2 billion today.

Uncover how Xiaomi's forecasts yield a HK$57.80 fair value, a 53% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fifteen members of the Simply Wall St Community place Xiaomi’s fair value between HK$31.49 and HK$78.87, reflecting a wide spread in expectations. Set against concerns about rising AI, chip and EV R&D costs, this diversity of views underlines why you may want to compare several perspectives before forming a view on Xiaomi’s long term earnings power.

Explore 15 other fair value estimates on Xiaomi - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Xiaomi Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Xiaomi research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Xiaomi research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Xiaomi's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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