Hesai Group (HSAI) Scales Up Lidar for NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion 10 and Physical AI Ambitions

• In early January 2026, Hesai Technology announced it had been chosen as a lidar partner for NVIDIA’s DRIVE AGX Hyperion 10 Level 4-ready architecture, while also unveiling plans to more than double its annual lidar production capacity to over 4 million units in 2026 and expanding into new applications like MOVIN’s lidar-based motion capture.
• Together, these developments highlight Hesai’s push to scale manufacturing, deepen automotive and robotics relationships, and embed its lidar across both autonomous driving platforms and emerging “physical AI” use cases.
• We’ll now examine how Hesai’s decision to more than double production capacity could reshape the company’s existing investment narrative.

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Hesai Group Investment Narrative Recap

To own Hesai, you need to believe lidar will remain central to higher level autonomy and “physical AI,” and that the company can scale profitably despite intense pricing and capital demands. The NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion 10 win and the plan to more than double capacity reinforce the current growth catalyst around rising ADAS and robotics demand, but they also amplify the key short term risk that heavy expansion spending could run ahead of actual orders.

Among the latest updates, Hesai’s commitment to lift annual production capacity from 2 million to over 4 million units in 2026 directly ties into that growth story, because it underpins delivery of existing design wins and future NVIDIA related volumes. At the same time, this expansion interacts with the company’s already high valuation multiples, making execution on those ADAS and robotics programs especially important if the current investment case is to hold up.

Yet behind this growth push, investors should also be aware of the risk that capacity expands faster than confirmed demand, potentially leaving...

Read the full narrative on Hesai Group (it's free!)

Hesai Group's narrative projects CN¥7.5 billion revenue and CN¥1.3 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 44.3% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about CN¥1.2 billion from CN¥103.1 million today.

Uncover how Hesai Group's forecasts yield a $30.06 fair value, a 10% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Eighteen members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Hesai’s fair value anywhere between US$3.53 and US$55.50, with estimates spread across the full range. Against that wide dispersion, the planned capacity expansion above 4 million lidar units and dependence on ADAS demand growth put real weight on whether forecast volumes actually turn into sustainable earnings, so it is worth comparing several of these viewpoints before deciding how you see the stock.

Explore 18 other fair value estimates on Hesai Group - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Hesai Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Hesai Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Hesai Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Hesai Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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