Itron (ITRI) Valuation Check After Snowflake AI Partnership And Recent Share Price Weakness

Itron (ITRI) is back in focus after announcing a collaboration with Snowflake to power its Grid Planning solution with AI driven analytics, targeting complex utility challenges around distributed energy resources and grid modernization.

See our latest analysis for Itron.

The Snowflake partnership comes as Itron’s recent share price performance has cooled in the short term, with a 90 day share price return of a 28.35% decline, even though the 3 year total shareholder return of 72.26% points to stronger longer term momentum.

If you are following how AI and data are reshaping utilities, it can also be useful to scan other tech focused names through high growth tech and AI stocks for potential ideas beyond Itron.

With Itron trading at US$99.00, sitting on a 3 year total shareholder return above 70% and flagged as at a discount to both analyst targets and intrinsic value, is this weakness a fresh entry point or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 29.5% Undervalued

With Itron’s fair value narrative sitting around $140.40 against a last close of $99.00, the story leans toward underpricing and sets up a bigger question about how long-term cash flows are being modeled.

Expected acceleration in global demand for smart grid infrastructure and advanced metering solutions, driven by government decarbonization mandates, increasing electrification, and urbanization, supports a long-run, expanding addressable market for Itron, providing a clear path to sustained top-line revenue growth. Ongoing industry-wide digitalization and increased adoption of IoT by utilities are driving higher uptake of Itron's Outcomes (software and analytics) offerings, which are higher margin and boost recurring revenue, supporting continued net margin and earnings expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue lift, margin profile, and future earnings multiple are baked into that fair value number? The narrative spells out a detailed playbook for utility IoT cash flows, recurring software mix, and what sort of profitability level would need to hold for that price to stack up.

Result: Fair Value of $140.40 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the fair value story still depends on utility capex remaining supportive and on Itron avoiding prolonged project delays or softer demand in its Outcomes business.

Find out about the key risks to this Itron narrative.

Build Your Own Itron Narrative

If you are not fully on board with this story or simply prefer to test the numbers yourself, you can build your own view quickly with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Itron research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for more investment ideas beyond Itron?

If you stop with just one company here, you could miss opportunities that fit your style even better, so take a few minutes to scan broader ideas.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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