Oil Pierces $100 in Whipsaw Session as Trump Comments Trigger Plunge

Barchart·03/09/2026 21:50:27

It was a turbulent start to the week for North American markets. Monday began with a significant sell-off triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions and a massive spike in energy costs.

Major market benchmarks experienced a strong dose of volatility during Monday’s trading session. After beginning the day deep in the red, North American market indices rallied sharply, closing the day with strong gains across the board.

Index	Gain/Loss	Monday’s Close
S&P 500 (SPX)	+0.8%	6,795.99
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)	+0.5%	47,740.80
Nasdaq Composite (IXIC)	+1.4%	22,695.94
TSX Composite (TSX)	+0.3%	33,189.32

Oil Prices Surge, Then Plunge

For the first time in nearly four years, crude oil surpassed USD $100 per barrel. Brent Crude (BZ) surged as much as 29% intra-day to a new 52-week high of $119.50, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) soared up to 31% en route to a new 52-week high of its own of $119.48.

Oil prices pulled back dramatically in the afternoon following President Trump’s remarks on the Iran war, with both benchmarks plunging as much as 30% from their peaks, before rebounding and stabilizing. Brent Crude and WTI last traded at $92.08 and $87.70, respectively.

Trump Says “War is Very Complete”

Markets reversed their decline, and oil prices pulled back after President Trump’s comments implying the War in Iran could be coming to a close soon.

During a phone interview with CBS on Monday afternoon, President Trump stated:

“I think the war is very complete, pretty much. [Iran has] no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones. If you look, they have nothing left. There’s nothing left in a military sense.”

The President also claimed that the Strait of Hormuz is now open, but added that he is still “thinking about taking it over.”

In contrast to the President’s remarks, the U.S. Department of Defense posted on X:

We have Only Just Begun to Fight. pic.twitter.com/PWM84ksTkw

— DOW Rapid Response (@DOWResponse) March 9, 2026

In addition, it was reported over the weekend that Israel bombed 30 oil depots in Iran, further escalating the tensions.

Oil Sector Catalysts

The oil sector is currently the epicenter of global market volatility. The market’s fear is pinned almost entirely on the ongoing Iran conflict, which has destabilized the Middle East region, causing energy prices to soar.

Among the primary drivers is the Strait of Hormuz, where nearly 20% of global oil supply is currently at risk. Other catalysts that could contribute to additional oil price increases include:

• Supply Disruptions: News that Bahrain’s national oil company declared force majeure following refinery attacks has fueled worries that the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil, is effectively compromised.
• Infrastructure Threats: Beyond the shipping lanes, drone attacks on Saudi refineries and Qatari export facilities have injected a massive risk premium into the price.
• Production Curbs: Saudi Arabia announced it was curbing production due to its oil storage facilities being near capacity.
• Sector Divergence: While the broader market is bleeding, the energy sector is one of the few standing green as producers benefit from the price surge. Conversely, tech and consumer sectors are being pressured by the dual threat of rising costs and a potential inflationary spike.

Standout Oil Stocks

While the broad market continues to experience volatility, these specific energy players are seeing substantial growth:

Company	Notable Performance	Why It’s Moving
Sable Offshore (NYSE: SOC)	+74% in the past 5 days.	Pure-play production growth in a high-price environment.
Kosmos Energy (NYSE: KOS)	+181% YTD.	Strong exploration success and production outside the conflict zone.
Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY)	+34% YTD.	Massive Permian Basin exposure; a favorite of Buffett/Berkshire.
BP (NYSE: BP)	+17% YTD.	Benefiting from diverse global upstream projects starting this year.

Who Benefits Most if the Conflict Drags Out?

Despite Trump’s comments today, the Strait of Hormuz may remain closed or contested for weeks to come. In this scenario, the market will shift focus toward advantaged producers, those with assets far from the Middle East.

• U.S. Permian Behemoths: Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) are the primary beneficiaries. Both have aggressive growth plans in the Permian Basin and Guyana, meaning they can sell safe Western oil at inflated global prices. Year-to-date, XOM and CVX are up 25% and 24.3%, respectively.
• Canadian Oil Sands: Companies like Suncor (TSX: SU) (NYSE: SU) and Canadian Natural Resources (TSX: CNQ) (NYSE: CNQ) are essentially land-locked from Middle Eastern geopolitics. Their massive, long-life reserves become significantly more valuable as global supply tightens. SU is up 29.4% YTD, while CNQ is up 36.6%.
• LNG Exporters: With Qatari gas potentially offline, U.S. LNG leaders like Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG) are seeing massive demand. Analysts estimate American LNG exporters could earn an extra $1 billion per week during this crisis. YTD, LNG is up 29%.
• Oil Tankers: As ships are forced to take longer routes around Africa to avoid the Middle East, tanker companies like Teekay Tankers (NYSE: TNK) and Nordic American Tankers (NYSE: NAT) benefit from skyrocketing freight rates. YTD, TNK and NAT are up 39.2% and 63.7%, respectively.

What to Keep an Eye on Moving Forward

• Inventory Levels: Watch the G7’s decision on releasing emergency oil reserves; a large release could temporarily cap price gains.
• Sell the News Risk: Some analysts, such as Jim Thorne at Wellington-Altus, are warning that this is a “parabolic move” and that oil could be a “sell” if a diplomatic off-ramp appears.
• Refinery Damage: If Middle Eastern refineries stay offline, look at U.S.-based refiners like Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO), which will see their profit margins increase as they fill the global fuel gap. VLO is up 32.7% YTD.

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