Is It Time To Reassess LendingClub (LC) After The Recent Share Price Weakness?

• Wondering whether LendingClub's current share price reflects its true worth, or if the market is missing something important about the stock.
• The share price closed at US$13.32, with recent moves including an 8.7% decline over 7 days, a 14.6% decline over 30 days, a 30.3% decline year to date, a 20.0% gain over 1 year, and a 97.0% gain over 3 years, while sitting 27.5% lower over 5 years.
• These swings have kept LendingClub on many investors' watchlists, as the stock has moved between periods of strong gains and setbacks. Recent commentary has focused on how these price moves line up with evolving expectations for the business and the broader consumer finance sector.
• Simply Wall St currently assigns LendingClub a valuation score of 4 out of 6, based on how often it screens as undervalued across several checks. Next, you will see how different valuation approaches arrive at that score, along with a more holistic way to think about value at the end of the article.

LendingClub delivered 20.0% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Consumer Finance industry.

Approach 1: LendingClub Excess Returns Analysis

The Excess Returns model looks at how much profit a company can generate over and above the return that equity investors require, then links that to the value of its equity per share. Instead of focusing on cash flows, it centers on return on equity and how efficiently each dollar of book value is used.

For LendingClub, the model uses a Book Value of US$13.01 per share and a Stable EPS of US$2.48 per share, based on weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 6 analysts. The Average Return on Equity input is 14.75%. Against this, the Cost of Equity is set at US$1.29 per share, which implies an Excess Return of US$1.19 per share. The Stable Book Value is US$16.82 per share, sourced from weighted future Book Value estimates from 4 analysts.

Bringing these pieces together, the Excess Returns framework arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about US$44.72 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$13.32, this points to the stock being assessed as 70.2% undervalued by this method.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Excess Returns analysis suggests LendingClub is undervalued by 70.2%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 50 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for LendingClub.

Approach 2: LendingClub Price vs Earnings

The P/E ratio is a useful yardstick for profitable companies because it anchors the share price to the earnings that each share generates. It helps you see what investors are currently willing to pay for each dollar of profit.

What counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/E depends on how fast earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings are. Higher expected growth and lower perceived risk often support a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually align with a lower multiple.

LendingClub currently trades on a P/E of 11.31x. That is above the Consumer Finance industry average of 7.55x and above the peer group average of 6.14x. Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary “Fair Ratio” of 20.45x for LendingClub, which reflects factors such as its earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and key risks.

This Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry because it adjusts for the specific characteristics of the business rather than treating all companies as alike. Comparing the current P/E of 11.31x with the Fair Ratio of 20.45x suggests the shares are assessed as trading below that model based estimate.

Result: UNDERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your LendingClub Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Meet Narratives, a simple tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you attach a clear story about LendingClub to specific assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins. You can link those assumptions to a Fair Value, then compare that Fair Value with today’s price to decide whether the stock looks attractive to you. Each Narrative updates automatically when fresh news or earnings arrive and allows very different perspectives to coexist, such as one investor aligning with a cautious Fair Value of US$12.00 and another aligning with a more optimistic Fair Value of US$26.00 for the same company.

Do you think there's more to the story for LendingClub? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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