Meituan (SEHK:3690) Posts C¥23.4b TTM Loss Testing Bullish Profitability Narratives

Meituan (SEHK:3690) has just wrapped up FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of about C¥90.97b and a net loss of roughly C¥15.14b, while the latest trailing twelve month figures show revenue of around C¥364.85b and a net loss of about C¥23.36b, translating to a TTM EPS of C¥3.84. Over recent periods the company has seen quarterly revenue move between roughly C¥86.56b and C¥95.49b, with net income ranging from a profit of about C¥10.06b in Q1 2025 to losses of C¥18.63b in Q3 2025. As a result, investors are likely to focus on how effectively Meituan is managing costs and protecting margins at this scale.

See our full analysis for Meituan.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to set these results against the widely held narratives about Meituan to see which stories the figures support and which they start to challenge.

See what the community is saying about Meituan

Losses swing sharply across FY 2025

• Across FY 2025, Meituan moved from a profit of C¥10.1b in Q1 to a loss of C¥18.6b in Q3 and C¥15.1b in Q4, and on a trailing twelve month basis that adds up to a C¥23.4b loss.
• Bulls often highlight forecasts for earnings to grow about 65.08% per year and turn positive within three years, yet this latest C¥23.4b trailing loss tests how quickly that shift can realistically play out.
  • Forecasts of strong earnings growth sit against the fact that only Q1 and Q2 2025 in the recent set were profitable, while Q3 and Q4 swung back to sizeable losses.
  • The bullish view that profitability is on the way is heavily reliant on future improvements, because the trailing EPS is currently C¥3.84 in loss terms rather than in profit.

Investors who back the bullish view are effectively betting that these large FY 2025 losses are a temporary step on the way to the earnings growth that analysts are modelling, not a new normal for the business. 🐂 Meituan Bull Case

Revenue scale vs mixed valuation signals

• On a trailing basis, Meituan generated C¥364.9b of revenue, and the stock trades at a P/S of 1.3x compared with 0.8x for the Hong Kong Hospitality industry and 2.5x for peers, while the current share price of HK$85.90 sits against a DCF fair value of HK$206.54 and an analyst price target of HK$113.34.
• Skeptics argue that continued losses justify a discount, and the mixed valuation picture gives them some support while also showing where the bearish stance is being challenged.
  • The stock looks cheaper than peers on P/S, yet more expensive than the broader industry, which fits the cautious view that investors are still paying up relative to the sector even while the business is unprofitable.
  • However, the gap between HK$85.90 and the HK$206.54 DCF fair value and HK$113.34 analyst target is large, so anyone leaning fully into the bearish case has to assume either lower future growth or weaker profitability than those models currently use.

Skeptical investors are likely to pay close attention to how long the company stays loss making, because as long as TTM profitability is negative it becomes easier to justify the cautious stance on valuation. 🐻 Meituan Bear Case

Revenue growth outpacing the market

• Revenue is reported as growing at 10.1% per year over the last 12 months, compared with a Hong Kong market benchmark of 8.2% per year, and quarterly revenue during FY 2025 held in a band of about C¥86.6b to C¥95.5b.
• Consensus narrative points to expansion beyond core food delivery and heavier use of logistics and AI, and the current numbers partly back that story while also underlining the cost of that growth push.
  • Revenue running ahead of the 8.2% market benchmark is consistent with the idea that the platform is still gaining economic weight, in line with expectations for 11.3% annual revenue growth over the next three years.
  • At the same time, the fact that this higher growth rate currently coexists with a C¥23.4b trailing loss shows that broadening into areas like on demand retail and international operations is not yet reflected in sustained profits, which is exactly the tension that consensus analysts highlight.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Meituan on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

If this mix of optimism and concern feels familiar, that is the point. You are meant to pressure test it yourself and move quickly before sentiment shifts. To see what is driving the optimism behind Meituan, take a closer look at its 2 key rewards

See What Else Is Out There

Meituan is delivering sizeable revenue, but the C¥23.4b trailing loss and recent swings back into quarterly losses show that earnings quality and consistency remain weak.

If those profit swings make you uneasy, it could be worth balancing your watchlist with companies that score well in the 284 resilient stocks with low risk scores so you are not overly exposed to volatile earnings profiles.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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