Xiaocaiyuan International Holding Ltd. (HKG:999) Just Reported And Analysts Have Been Cutting Their Estimates

Last week, you might have seen that Xiaocaiyuan International Holding Ltd. (HKG:999) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.2% to HK$7.21 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of CN¥5.4b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 4.5% to hit CN¥0.61 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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After the latest results, the seven analysts covering Xiaocaiyuan International Holding are now predicting revenues of CN¥5.98b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a solid 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 2.9% to CN¥0.59 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥6.51b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.72 in 2026. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

View our latest analysis for Xiaocaiyuan International Holding

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of HK$11.79, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Xiaocaiyuan International Holding's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Xiaocaiyuan International Holding, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$14.16 and the most bearish at HK$10.01 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Xiaocaiyuan International Holding's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 15% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Xiaocaiyuan International Holding is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Xiaocaiyuan International Holding. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$11.79, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Xiaocaiyuan International Holding analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Xiaocaiyuan International Holding's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.