Pop Mart International Group Limited (HKG:9992) Just Reported And Analysts Have Been Cutting Their Estimates

One of the biggest stories of last week was how Pop Mart International Group Limited (HKG:9992) shares plunged 29% in the week since its latest full-year results, closing yesterday at HK$150. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of CN¥37b and statutory earnings per share of CN¥9.58 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Pop Mart International Group is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.

Following the latest results, Pop Mart International Group's 31 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥45.5b in 2026. This would be a huge 23% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 19% to CN¥11.46. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥49.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥12.36 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for Pop Mart International Group

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 25% to HK$260. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Pop Mart International Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$388 and the most bearish at HK$127 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Pop Mart International Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 23% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 50% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 10% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Pop Mart International Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Pop Mart International Group. They also downgraded Pop Mart International Group's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Pop Mart International Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Pop Mart International Group that you need to be mindful of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.