What Eversource Energy (ES)'s FERC ROE Reset Means For Shareholders

• Earlier this week, a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ruling set a new 9.57% base return on equity for New England Transmission Owners, prompting analysts to reassess Eversource Energy’s near-term earnings outlook and capital plans.
• While the lower allowed return is expected to weigh on 2026 results, Eversource’s US$26.50 billion five-year investment program and continued shift toward fully regulated operations are central to how analysts view its longer-term earnings profile and dividend capacity.
• We’ll now examine how the FERC ROE reset, and its 2026 earnings drag, may reshape Eversource Energy’s previously outlined investment narrative.

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Eversource Energy Investment Narrative Recap

To own Eversource Energy, you need to be comfortable with a slow and regulated earnings story built around its US$26.50 billion five year investment plan and consistent dividends. The new 9.57% FERC base ROE trims 2026 earnings expectations, which now look more like a pause than a reset, but it sharpens the focus on regulatory risk as the key near term swing factor, while execution on asset sales and storm cost recovery remains the biggest balance sheet overhang.

The February 2026 guidance for US$4.80 to US$4.95 in EPS and the simultaneous dividend increase to US$0.7875 per quarter are particularly relevant in light of the FERC ruling. Together, they show how management is framing 2026 as a softer year while still pointing to the five year 5% to 7% EPS growth target tied to its regulated capex program, even as a lower allowed transmission ROE tests the resilience of that plan.

Yet this regulatory reset also highlights a risk investors should be aware of if future decisions in Connecticut or at FERC further pressure allowed returns and cost recovery...

Read the full narrative on Eversource Energy (it's free!)

Eversource Energy's narrative projects $14.8 billion revenue and $2.1 billion earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Eversource Energy's forecasts yield a $75.38 fair value, a 12% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest estimate analysts were already cautious, assuming roughly flat revenues near US$13.2 billion and EPS around US$5.11 by 2029, and the new FERC ROE decision could push their more pessimistic view on regulatory and financing risks even further, so it is worth comparing that stance with more constructive opinions before you decide which story you believe.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Eversource Energy - why the stock might be worth as much as 12% more than the current price!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your Eversource Energy research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Eversource Energy research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Eversource Energy's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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