China Feihe Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

China Feihe Limited (HKG:6186) missed earnings with its latest full-year results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with CN¥18b revenue coming in 4.5% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.21 missed the mark badly, arriving some 22% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for China Feihe from 13 analysts is for revenues of CN¥18.8b in 2026. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 4.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 23% to CN¥0.27. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥20.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.34 in 2026. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers.

See our latest analysis for China Feihe

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 6.5% to HK$4.69. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values China Feihe at HK$5.60 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$3.60. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that China Feihe is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 4.1% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 1.8% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 5.0% annually for the foreseeable future. So although China Feihe's revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for China Feihe. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for China Feihe going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with China Feihe (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.