MeiraGTx Holdings plc (NASDAQ:MGTX) Analysts Are Cutting Their Estimates: Here's What You Need To Know

MeiraGTx Holdings plc (NASDAQ:MGTX) just released its latest annual results and things are looking bullish. The results were impressive, with revenues of US$81m exceeding analyst forecasts by 676%, and statutory losses of US$1.42 were likewise much smaller than the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on MeiraGTx Holdings after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from MeiraGTx Holdings' seven analysts is for revenues of US$111.2m in 2026. This reflects a substantial 37% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 16% from last year to US$1.18. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$124.7m and losses of US$1.13 per share in 2026. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.

See our latest analysis for MeiraGTx Holdings

The average price target was broadly unchanged at US$26.25, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on MeiraGTx Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$50.00 and the most bearish at US$16.00 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that MeiraGTx Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 37% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 12% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 20% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that MeiraGTx Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at MeiraGTx Holdings. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MeiraGTx Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for MeiraGTx Holdings (2 make us uncomfortable!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.