Where Will Joby Aviation (JOBY) Be in 1 Year?

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY), a developer of electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, lost more than 40% of its value this year as the Iran War, soaring energy prices, expectations for rate hikes, and other macroeconomic headwinds rattled the markets.

Yet over the past 12 months, Joby's stock still rose more than 30% as the S&P 500 advanced 12%. Let's see if this little eVTOL maker can outperform the market over the next 12 months.

Why did Joby beat the market over the past year?

Joby's S4 eVTOL can carry a single pilot and four passengers, travel up to 150 miles on a single charge, and achieve a maximum speed of 200 miles per hour. It can travel faster and farther than most other eVTOLs, including Archer Aviation's (NYSE: ACHR) Midnight, because it uses single tilt-rotor propellers that alternate between lifting and cruising modes. The Midnight uses separate propellers for lifting and cruising, which increases its overall drag.

Joby's technological advantages attracted prominent investors and customers, including Toyota, Delta Air Lines, and Uber. Most of those customers plan to use Joby's eVTOLs to replace helicopters for short-range air taxi services.

Joby is still waiting to launch its first commercial flights in Dubai and to have the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approve its first commercial U.S. flights. But assuming it clears those milestones, analysts expect its revenue to surge from $53 million in 2025 to $459 million in 2028. They also expect it to gradually narrow its net losses as economies of scale kick in.

According to Fortune Business Insights, the global eVTOL market could expand at a 36.8% CAGR from 2026 to 2034. If Joby maintains its first-mover advantage in that booming market, its sales could skyrocket over the next decade.

Where will Joby's stock be in a year?

But with an enterprise value of $6.6 billion, Joby's stock still looks bubbly at 59 times this year's sales. Meanwhile, two unpredictable headwinds could render analysts' rosy estimates obsolete.

First, Iran's missile and drone strikes against the U.A.E. and other Gulf states could intensify and indefinitely postpone Joby's first commercial flights in Dubai, which were originally scheduled for later this year. Second, soaring energy prices and inflation will likely force the Fed to raise rates instead of cut them this year. Those rate hikes will make it tougher for Joby and its backers to finance their expensive air taxi projects. They'll also drive more investors to pivot from speculative growth stocks toward more conservative investments.

While I think Joby is still a promising investment, I don't expect those two headwinds to dissipate anytime soon. That's why I believe Joby's stock will either trade sideways or slip lower over the next 12 months, rather than staying ahead of this choppy market.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.