Great Wall Motor Company Limited Just Missed EPS By 20%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Great Wall Motor Company Limited (HKG:2333) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.4% to HK$11.85 in the past week. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of CN¥223b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 20% to hit CN¥1.16 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Great Wall Motor after the latest results.

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Following the latest results, Great Wall Motor's 25 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥255.5b in 2026. This would be a decent 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 20% to CN¥1.39. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥254.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.43 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Great Wall Motor

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at HK$18.42, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Great Wall Motor, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$24.95 and the most bearish at HK$12.01 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Great Wall Motor'shistorical trends, as the 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 13% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 11% per year. So although Great Wall Motor is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Great Wall Motor going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Great Wall Motor you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.