PetroChina Company Limited (HKG:857) Just Reported Full-Year Earnings And Analysts Are Lifting Their Estimates

As you might know, PetroChina Company Limited (HKG:857) recently reported its full-year numbers. The result was positive overall - although revenues of CN¥2.9t were in line with what the analysts predicted, PetroChina surprised by delivering a statutory profit of CN¥0.86 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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After the latest results, the 13 analysts covering PetroChina are now predicting revenues of CN¥3.17t in 2026. If met, this would reflect a decent 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 25% to CN¥1.07. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥2.85t and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.91 in 2026. So we can see there's been a pretty clear increase in sentiment following the latest results, with both revenues and earnings per share receiving a decent lift in the latest estimates.

See our latest analysis for PetroChina

It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for PetroChina 7.1% to HK$11.02on the back of these upgrades. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic PetroChina analyst has a price target of HK$14.22 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$4.40. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that PetroChina's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.1% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 1.9% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect PetroChina to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around PetroChina's earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for PetroChina going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for PetroChina you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.