XPeng (XPEV) Valuation Check After March Delivery Surge And Narrowed Annual Losses

XPeng (XPEV) is back in focus after reporting March deliveries of 27,415 vehicles, an 80% month over month jump, alongside full year 2025 results that showed higher revenue and a narrower net loss.

See our latest analysis for XPeng.

Despite the strong delivery update and global expansion plans into Mexico, XPeng’s 7 day share price return of 9.28% decline and year to date share price return of 16.25% decline suggest investors are still cautious. At the same time, the 3 year total shareholder return of 67.75% shows how volatile sentiment around the stock has been.

If XPeng’s delivery surge has you looking at the wider electric vehicle space, it could be worth widening your watchlist with 66 profitable AI stocks that aren't just burning cash

With XPeng’s share price still down over the past year despite higher revenue and a smaller net loss, the key question now is simple: are you looking at an undervalued EV player, or has the market already priced in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 39.2% Undervalued

XPeng’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at $28.16 versus a last close of $17.11, indicating a large gap between price and narrative expectations.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $26.291 for XPeng based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $33.26, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $18.27.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is driving that valuation gap? The narrative focuses on faster revenue growth, rising margins and a richer future earnings multiple. The exact mix of those assumptions is important.

Result: Fair Value of $28.16 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, you still need to weigh XPeng’s ongoing net losses and intense Chinese EV price competition, either of which could challenge the upbeat margin and growth assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this XPeng narrative.

Another Way to Look at Value

The narrative points to a fair value of $28.16 and tags XPeng as undervalued, but our DCF model tells a very different story. On that approach, the current price of $17.11 sits well above an estimate of future cash flow value at $6.31, which leans toward overvaluation and raises the question: which set of assumptions do you trust more?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out XPeng for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 58 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With sentiment clearly split, this is a moment to move quickly, stress test the assumptions for yourself and see what stands out in the data. To understand what the market is optimistic about, take a closer look at 2 key rewards

Looking for more investment ideas?

If XPeng has sharpened your focus on opportunities, do not stop there. Use targeted screens to spot other stocks that match the quality and risk profile you want.

• Target potential mispricings by scanning for companies trading below fundamentals with 58 high quality undervalued stocks
• Strengthen the quality of your holdings by filtering for financially robust businesses using the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (39 results)
• Broaden your watchlist with underfollowed opportunities through the screener containing 25 high quality undiscovered gems

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com