Why Is Exxon Mobil Stock Gaining Thursday?

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) shares traded higher Thursday as escalating geopolitical tensions boosted crude prices and lifted energy stocks, even as broader markets declined.

The move follows renewed rhetoric from President Donald Trump, who reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to ongoing strikes on Iran, intensifying concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

Energy Emerges As Market Outperformer

Energy is the clear pocket of strength in an otherwise risk-off session. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLE) rose 2.78%, outperforming as major indices slipped. The Dow Jones fell 1.23%, while the Russell 2000 declined 1.67%.

That relative strength is helping support Exxon shares despite broader equity weakness.

Trump Signals Escalation Risk

Crude prices surged in volatile trading after Trump warned of potential U.S. military action against Iran within the next two to three weeks, dampening expectations for near-term de-escalation.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery jumped 8.2% to $108.36 a barrel, while June Brent crude rose 8% to $109.16. Trump attributed the surge to alleged Iranian attacks on oil tankers and regional targets, while signaling the U.S. could “hit” Iran “extremely hard” even as diplomatic talks continue, CNBC reported.

IEA Warns Of Deepening Supply Shock

The International Energy Agency has flagged escalating risks to global oil markets.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the world has already lost an estimated 12 million barrels per day of oil supply — exceeding the combined impact of the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

“The next month, April, will be much worse than March,” Birol said.

Separately, former U.S. Under Secretary of Defense Michèle Flournoy said any resolution is unlikely to result in regime change, instead leaving a hardened, IRGC-aligned government in control — a scenario that could prolong geopolitical risk premiums tied to the Strait of Hormuz.

Exxon: Technical Analysis

At $165.27, Exxon is trading 4.1% above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA), the stock’s average price over the last 20 sessions, which suggests buyers are still defending the near-term trend. It’s also 22.4% above its 100-day SMA, a sign the intermediate uptrend remains intact even if the pace has cooled.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD), a trend/momentum measure, is bullish with the MACD line at 5.0976 above the signal line at 4.8639, which indicates upside pressure is still slightly stronger than downside pressure. That said, the histogram is only 0.2337, hinting the bullish momentum is present but not accelerating.

Over the last 12 months, the stock is up 39.39%, which confirms the longer-term trend has been strong (though it’s backward-looking, not a forecast). Price is also sitting closer to the 52-week high of $176.41 than the low of $97.80, which is consistent with a market that’s been rewarding the energy trade.

• Key Resistance: $176.50 — near the recent peak area where upside has recently stalled.
• Key Support: $147.50 — a key “line in the sand” where buyers previously showed up.

Earnings & Analyst Outlook

The countdown is on: Exxon Mobil is set to report earnings on April 14, 2026 (estimated).

• EPS Estimate: $1.82 (Up from $1.76 YoY)
• Revenue Estimate: $85.19 Billion (Up from $83.13 Billion YoY)
• Valuation: P/E of 24.0x (Suggests fair valuation relative to peers)

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $145.23. Recent analyst moves include:

• Morgan Stanley: Overweight (Raises Target to $172.00) (March 27)
• HSBC: Hold (Raises Target to $158.00) (March 20)
• Mizuho: Neutral (Raises Target to $162.00) (March 17)

Benzinga Edge Rankings

Below is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for Exxon Mobil, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market:

• Momentum: Bullish (Score: 89.1) — The stock is showing strong trend persistence versus the broader market.
• Value: Bullish (Score: 73.89) — The setup screens as relatively attractive versus peers on valuation factors.
• Growth: Bullish (Score: 74.91) — The company is scoring well on growth metrics compared with the market.

The Verdict: Exxon Mobil’s Benzinga Edge signal reveals a momentum-driven story with supportive value and growth scores. With momentum leading the stack, the chart is doing the heavy lifting, but the next real test is whether price can hold above the $147.50 support zone if the market’s risk-off tone persists.

Top ETF Exposure

• First Trust Nasdaq Oil & Gas ETF (NASDAQ:FTXN): 9.21% Weight
• Cohen & Steers Natural Resources Active ETF (NYSE:CSNR): 5.78% Weight
• Strive Natural Resources and Security ETF (NYSE:FTWO): 6.90% Weight

Significance: Because XOM carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely force automatic buying or selling of the stock.

XOM Stock Price Activity: Exxon Mobil shares were up 2.85% at $165.37 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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