Why Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Is Up 29.0% After Morgan Stanley Names It a Top Pick

• Morgan Stanley recently elevated Affirm Holdings to its Top Pick list, arguing that concerns around private credit are too pessimistic and pointing to upcoming company updates on gross merchandise volume, margins, and long-term earnings targets at its May Investor Forum as important reference points.
• An interesting angle is Morgan Stanley’s expectation that Affirm will outline a fiscal 2028 GAAP EPS range that the bank views as conservative, potentially reframing how investors think about the company’s earnings power and long-term profitability goals.
• We’ll now examine how Morgan Stanley’s Top Pick call and anticipated 2028 earnings guidance could reshape Affirm’s existing investment narrative.

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Affirm Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To own Affirm, you need to believe its BNPL and broader payments network can keep gaining share with disciplined underwriting and improving profitability. Morgan Stanley’s Top Pick call and expected 2028 GAAP EPS range raise the stakes for earnings execution, but the near term still looks most sensitive to merchant concentration and margin pressure from 0% APR products; this latest endorsement does not remove those risks, it just reframes how some see the upside.

The most relevant recent announcement here is Affirm’s upcoming May Investor Forum, where management plans to update investors on gross merchandise volume trends, margins, and longer term earnings targets. That event now sits alongside the Q3 2026 earnings release on May 7 as a key short term information catalyst, giving shareholders fresh data to compare against both Morgan Stanley’s earnings framework and existing concerns around private credit and competitive intensity in BNPL.

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Read the full narrative on Affirm Holdings (it's free!)

Affirm Holdings' narrative projects $6.0 billion revenue and $756.6 million earnings by 2028. This assumes 22.9% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $704 million from $52.2 million today.

Uncover how Affirm Holdings' forecasts yield a $86.00 fair value, a 28% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest ranked analysts were already more cautious, assuming revenue of about US$6.9 billion and earnings of roughly US$644.8 million by 2029, so you should weigh Morgan Stanley’s upbeat Top Pick view against that more pessimistic backdrop and consider how new information from the Investor Forum could shift either narrative.

Explore 8 other fair value estimates on Affirm Holdings - why the stock might be worth as much as 64% more than the current price!

Form Your Own Verdict

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your Affirm Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Affirm Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Affirm Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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