China Mobile Limited (HKG:941) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

As you might know, China Mobile Limited (HKG:941) just kicked off its latest first-quarter results with some very strong numbers. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 3.1% to hit CN¥266b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at CN¥1.35, some 2.3% above whatthe analysts had expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, China Mobile's 14 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be CN¥1.05t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 4.6% to CN¥5.98 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥1.05t and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥6.30 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for China Mobile

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at HK$96.32, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic China Mobile analyst has a price target of HK$115 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$79.90. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.5% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 5.5% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.1% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that China Mobile's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for China Mobile. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$96.32, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple China Mobile analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the China Mobile Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.