Akeso (SEHK:9926) Valuation Check After Positive Cadonilimab Phase II Data In Advanced Pancreatic Cancer

Akeso (SEHK:9926) is back in focus after presenting positive Phase II COMPASSION-26 data at the 2026 AACR meeting, highlighting cadonilimab plus chemotherapy in advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

See our latest analysis for Akeso.

Akeso's share price is trading at HK$131.6 after a 16.15% year-to-date share price return, with recent clinical updates arriving alongside a 12.96% 90-day share price gain and a very large 3-year total shareholder return of 207.12%. This suggests momentum has built over the longer term, even as the 7-day share price return of negative 12.85% hints at a short-term reassessment of risk and expectations.

If you are tracking how cancer drug developers are priced, it can help to see what the market is paying for other specialist names and compare Akeso's profile against 126 healthcare AI stocks

With Akeso showing strong clinical progress, a 3 year total return above 200% and the share price sitting below the average analyst target, the key question is whether the current HK$131.6 level still leaves meaningful upside or if expectations already reflect future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 24.4% Undervalued

Akeso's most followed narrative points to a fair value of HK$174.12, compared with the latest HK$131.6 close, framing the current debate around upside potential.

The analysts have a consensus price target of HK$174.12 for Akeso based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of HK$228.65, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just HK$114.14.

Read the complete narrative.

Big revenue expansion, a sharp swing from losses to profits, and a premium future earnings multiple all sit at the heart of this narrative. Curious which assumptions really carry the valuation load? The full breakdown shows how growth, margins, and the chosen discount rate combine to reach that HK$174.12 figure.

Result: Fair Value of HK$174.12 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, you still need to weigh profitability pressures, including a CN¥1.1b net loss and heavy reliance on cadonilimab and ivonescimab for the current equity story.

Find out about the key risks to this Akeso narrative.

Another Way To Look At Valuation

The SWS DCF model points to a fair value of HK$180.63, which is above both the HK$131.6 share price and the HK$174.12 narrative fair value. This suggests the cash flow view sees even more value than the analyst target, so which set of assumptions do you trust most?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Next Steps

With sentiment divided between upside potential and real risks, it can be useful to act promptly and test the assumptions yourself against the numbers. To see what is contributing to optimism around the company, review the 2 key rewards

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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