O-I Glass Q1 2026 Earnings Call: Complete Transcript

O-I Glass (NYSE:OI) reported first-quarter financial results on Wednesday. The transcript from the company's first-quarter earnings call has been provided below.

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View the webcast at https://events.q4inc.com/attendee/136614099

Summary

O-I Glass reported a challenging start to 2026 with first quarter adjusted earnings of $0.05 per share, below expectations, due to sluggish demand, competitive pressures in Europe, and increased costs from one-time events.

The company's 'Fit to Win' initiative continues to yield cost savings and new business wins, aiming for $750 million in cumulative benefits by 2027, with $50 million gross benefits achieved in Q1 2026.

The company updated its 2026 guidance, expecting adjusted earnings of $1 to $1.50 per share, accounting for a tough European market and energy inflation but remains focused on its 2027 targets.

Net sales remained steady despite a decline in shipments; the Americas showed stability while Europe struggled with lower demand and price competition, especially in wine and spirits.

Management emphasized ongoing strategic priorities, including cost optimization, footprint rationalization, and leveraging competitive strengths to drive profitable growth in key categories.

Full Transcript

Kate (Conference Operator)

Thank you for standing by. My name is Kate and I will be your conference operator today. At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the OI Glass first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press Star followed with the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press Star one again. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Chris Manuel. Please go ahead.

Chris Manuel

Thank you Kate and welcome everyone to the OI Glass first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. With me today are Gordon Hardy, our CEO, and John Hodrick, our CFO. After prepared remarks, we will open the line for Q and A. Our presentation materials are available on the company's website. Please review the Safe harbor statements and the disclosures regarding our use of non-GAAP financial measures included in those materials. With that, I'll turn the call over to Gordon who will begin on slide three.

Gordon Hardy (CEO)

Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us. Today we will review our first quarter results, what we are seeing across the business and our outlook for the year. Before I begin, I want to thank all our O-I Glass colleagues across the world for their focus, execution and commitment to supporting our customers in a tough environment. The year got off to a challenging start. While the top line held steady, demand was sluggish early in the quarter before improving through March. We also experienced elevated commercial pressures in Europe and several one time external events that increased our costs. As a result, first quarter adjusted earnings of $0.05 per share came in below our original expectations. Fit to Win continues to deliver and the disciplines are now embedded across the organization. We are seeing the benefits of a stronger cost position reflected in new business wins across key categories that should support higher volumes starting in the second half of the year. Operationally, it was a story of two hemispheres. In the Americas, earnings were stable despite several external disruptions. In Europe, results fell short of expectations amid elevated competitive pressure. Europe is also earlier in the fit to Win journey than the Americas and we expect performance to improve in the coming quarters as we execute the restructuring actions we have announced. Looking to the full year, we expect strong year over year improvement in the Americas, yet we have updated our 2026 guidance to reflect a more challenging European market compounded by elevated energy inflation and broader macro dynamics. John will walk you through the updated outlook in more detail in a few moments. Even with the near term uncertainty, our strategy and priorities are unchanged. With continued fit to win execution and new business wins, we are confident we can strengthen results as the year progresses and expect to build momentum into 27 and beyond. We remain laser focused on our investments investor day objectives and we believe many of today's headwinds are temporary. Let's now turn to Slide 4 to discuss our top line performance and volume trends. As you can see, net sales have remained steady over the past several quarters even amid ongoing volatility and uncertainty. That said, we got off to a slow start this year with first quarter shipments down about 8% versus the prior year. This comparison was also tougher as last year likely benefited from customer pre buys ahead of a new US Tariff regiment. By category, alcoholic end uses were the softest while NAB and food performed better. In fact, food is now emerging as our second largest category behind beer. Regionally, shipments declined in North America and Mexico amid ongoing customer inventory adjustments and spirits while South America delivered mid to high single digit growth. In Europe, demand was softest in wine, particularly in the south and an extended negotiation period while other markets were more balanced. Importantly, volume trends improved sequentially through the quarter which March volumes down only 2%. Given that trend, we continue to expect full year sales volumes to be about flat with the prior year after a slow first quarter. We anticipate shipments to be stable in the second quarter and to deliver low to mid single digit growth in the second half, supported by easier comparisons and New business wins. As we implement our new go to market approach, we are encouraged by the early progress. We've landed new business across about 15 accounts spanning all categories that should contribute one and a half percent of new sales volume starting in the second half of the year. Together these wins should help set us up for profitable sustainable growth in the 1% to 2% range beginning in 2027. While the quarter was challenging, the trend improved as we exited Q1. The team executed well in difficult circumstances with steadier demand and new business wins. We believe the fundamentals position us well for a stronger second half. Turning now to Slide five, Fit to Win remains a core driver for oi. The program continues to take cost out and optimize our footprint and value chain. Strengthening our cost position improves competitiveness and enables long term profitable growth as demonstrated by new business wins. We are now at the halfway point towards delivering 750 million of cumulative benefits through 2027 and we remain ahead of schedule. In the first quarter the team delivered gross fit to win benefits of about 50 million in line with our expectations, net benefits were 35 million after headwinds from external disruption in the Americas and temporary transition costs. As we complete the closure of three plants in Europe, let me highlight our progress across the phase of the initiative. Phase A, focused on SGA streamlining and initial Network optimization generated 32 million of net benefits in the quarter. Despite transition costs in Europe. We expect the organizational actions and planned capacity. It.

OPERATOR

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the operator. I apologize, but there will be a slight delay in today's conference. Please hold on. The call will resume momentarily. Thank you for your patience. You may resume the conference.

Chris Manuel

Thank you. Sorry it sounds like we got disrupted there. We're going to start over. I'm going to turn it back over to Gordon and we will start again on slide five. Thank you.

Gordon Hardy (CEO)

Thanks, Chris. And apologies everyone for that technical hitch. Turning again to slide five. Fit to Win remains a core value driver for O I. The program continues to take cost out and optimize our footprint and value chain. Strengthening our cost position improves competitiveness and enables long term profitable growth as demonstrated by New business wins. We are now at the halfway point towards delivering 750 million of cumulative benefits through 2027 and we remain ahead of schedule. In the first quarter, the team delivered gross Fit to Win benefits of about 50 million in line with our expectations. Net benefits were 35 million after headwinds from external disruptions in the Americas and temporary transition costs. As we complete the closure of three plants in Europe, let me highlight our progress across the phases of the initiative. Phase A, focused on SGA streamlining and initial Network optimization generated $32 million of net benefits in the quarter. Despite transition costs in Europe. We expect the organizational actions and planned capacity closures to be largely completed by mid-2026. Phase B, focused on end to end value chain transformation, was slightly up after absorbing costs associated with disruption in the Americas. Core work streams continue as planned. We launched the third wave of total organization effectiveness and we are accelerating procurement and energy initiatives to drive incremental savings. We are also pursuing incremental opportunities to offset cost headwinds we observed in the first quarter. Fit to Win is working. We continue to target at least $275 million of benefits and in 2026. With that, I'll turn it over to John to walk you through the financials starting on slide 6.

John Hodrick (CFO)

Thanks Gordon and good morning everyone. First quarter net sales were $1.54 billion, essentially flat with the prior year. Favorable FX largely offset slightly lower average selling prices and a high single digit decline in volumes while shipments improved meaningfully as the quarter progressed. Adjusted earnings were $0.05 per share, down from $0.40 per share in the prior year, primarily due to commercial headwinds including unfavorable net price and lower volumes. Operating costs were comparable to the prior year as Fit to Win compensated for unanticipated disruptions. Earnings also reflected an unusually high effective tax rate on low pre tax earnings. As earnings improve, we expect a full year tax rate of approximately 35 to 40% with the potential to move lower in 2027 and beyond. Looking ahead, the full O-I Glass team is focused on strengthening performance as the year progresses. Let's turn to Slide 7 to discuss operating results. Segment operating profit was $142 million, down from $209 million last year, primarily due to the commercial pressures we discussed. As noted, the Americas was stable while Europe was down considerably. In the Americas, we performed well despite several external disruptions. The segment's top line was stable as favorable FX and MIX largely offset slightly lower selling prices and a 9% decline in shipments. Demand trends also improved as the quarter progressed, with March shipments down only modestly versus the prior year. America's segment operating profit was $142 million, essentially flat year over year benefiting from higher net price, while lower sales volume and higher operating costs were headwinds. Costs included $10 million of disruption related expense driven by extreme weather, civil unrest in Mexico and a natural gas pipeline failure in Peru, partially offset by Fit to Win in Europe. The results were well below our expectations and they are the primary driver of the year over year decline in segment earnings. Europe segment operating profit shortfall was driven by a combination of softer demand and an increasingly competitive market backdrop which pressured price amid low capacity utilization, most notably in wine in southern Europe. As a result, net sales declined slightly with favorable effects, partially offsetting lower price and volumes. Shipments were down 7% year over year. Although trends improved as we moved through the quarter and March, shipments were up slightly versus the prior year. As you'd expect, in that environment, profitability compressed meaningfully. Europe segment operating profit was breakeven in the first quarter, down roughly $68 million from a year ago. The biggest factor was a $76 million reduction in net price, reflecting both elevated price competition and the reset of favorable energy contracts that expired last year. Lower shipments were an additional headwind. These pressures were partially offset by Fit to Win benefit costs, even after absorbing $5 million of higher than expected temporary plant closure expenses. Looking ahead, we anticipate performance to increasingly converge across the regions as Europe builds the same resiliency and execution capability demonstrated in the Americas while continuing our transformation journey. Turning to slide 8, I'll close with an update on our outlook for the remainder of 2026. As discussed, it has been a challenging start to the year and we have updated our full year guidance to adjusted earnings of $1 to $1.50 per share. The chart also reflects our revised EBITDA and free cash flow expectations. To frame the outlook, it's important to separate what we are seeing in our core glass markets and what we are absorbing from broader macro environment, especially energy. Starting with the core glass business, demand trends are stabilizing as the year progresses and Fit to Win is continuing to deliver meaningful results. In the Americas, our outlook remains positive when we expect results to be up year over year. In Europe, we have risk adjusted our outlook by up to $25 million. Given elevated competitive pressures net of additional cost, actions and restructuring should support improved performance in the second half. The bigger swing factor in our updated guidance is macro driven energy inflation stemming from conflicts in the Middle east which could total 75 to $100 million. Higher energy prices flow through natural gas, electricity, logistics and certain raw materials. Importantly, our proactive energy management practice sets significantly limit further exposure, particularly in Europe, where approximately 75 to 80% of gas requirements are protected at prices favorable to current market levels and higher production in the colder winter months. We will continue to monitor macro developments including customer demand and whether broader inflation could further influence commercial dynamics as we have essentially risk adjusted our outlook for energy inflation. The Appendix includes additional earnings sensitivities to changes in European natural gas market prices. While our 2026 outlook is conservatively set given macro uncertainty, our strategy and priorities remain unchanged and we continue to drive towards the 2027 objectives we outlined at last year's Investor Day. We expect Fit to Win to deliver significant significant value next year, and we believe many of the pressures we are seeing in 2026 are temporary. More than half of our business operates under contractual price adjustment formulas that reflect changes in inflation on a lagging basis, providing an important structural mechanism as cost conditions evolve over time. Likewise, as capacity utilization increases, particularly in Europe, we believe our competitive position should continue to strengthen. Overall, we remain focused on the levers within our control anchored by Fit to Win, and we are determined to deliver the best possible performance this year while building momentum into 2027. With that, I'll turn it back to Gordon for closing remarks on slide 9.

Gordon Hardy (CEO)

Thanks John. Let me close with a few key takeaways. We are not satisfied with our first quarter results and we are moving quickly to improve performance. At the same time, our strategy is unchanged and our long term value creation plan remains firmly on track. While near term noise may continue to drive volatility, we see several clear indicators that oi's underlying fundamentals are moving decisively in the right direction. Here are six reasons we believe O-I Glass is a compelling long term investment Fit to Win is delivering a and continues to enable future profitable growth by improving operational discipline and cost competitiveness across the business core. Glass demand is stabilizing and recent trends are increasingly encouraging. March volumes point to a clear turning point in demand, providing early evidence that our actions are beginning to translate into profitable growth in the second half and beyond. Improving competitiveness across the footprint is already converting commercial opportunities. We have 15 confirmed incremental volume wins in hand yielding approximately 1.5% annualized growth. These ramp up over 26 and into 27, giving us a clear line of sight to profitable sustainable growth. The Americas, where we are furthest along in executing our transformation, are performing very well. Our capacity and demand are tightly aligned and across much of the region we are effectively sold out. As such, we are actively evaluating opportunities to bring dormant capacity back online. Further cost parity between aluminium and glass is spurring increased customer interest. In Europe, Fit to Win execution is accelerating. While the region trails the Americas by roughly six to nine months, our capacity rationalization and restructuring actions are underway. Our competitive position continues to strengthen, especially as capacity utilization improves. While we conservatively risk adjusted our 2026 outlook to reflect Europe's operating environment and the energy backdrop, we remain committed to our 2027 Investor Day targets. We believe these headwinds are temporary and manageable. Taken together, O I today is a more disciplined, better balanced and better positioned for durable growth than at any point in recent years. Thank you for your time today and your continued support. With that, we'd be happy to take your questions.

OPERATOR

At this time I would like to remind everyone in order to ask a question please press Star then the number one on your telephone keypad. We request to limit yourselves to one question and one follow up. We will pause for just a moment to compile the Q and A roster. Your first question comes from the line of George Stephous with Bank of America securities. Your line is open.

George Stephous (Analyst)

Thanks everyone. Good morning. Appreciate the details. Morning John. Good morning, Gordon. John, what has your line management relayed to you about 2Q volumes and Fit to Win performance so far? And what have you relayed in turn to the board? And why are you and the board both confident that the turn is happening in 2Q both in terms of volumes accelerating in Fit to Win. Relatedly, the phase beyond Fit to Win seems to be really not having much contribution so far this year versus Target. The second question, I know you gave us some sensitivity, but if you could help us out, if energy rises from here and in consideration of your hedges, is there a way you could give us some back of the envelope EBITDA effects and do we need to start worrying about any of your secured debt covenants at this juncture or not? And where would we need to? Thank you and good luck in the quarter.

John Hodrick (CFO)

Hey, George, this is John. I'll take the second part of that point first. So as far as the sensitivity to the earnings situation, you know, we assumed in these numbers, given that we're 75 to 80% covered this year, we're assuming a range of 45 to €55 per megawatt hour being the relevant range. And so to the degree that energy is below that, for every €5 drop on average we get, we get back about $0.05 per share. So that's about $12 million or so of EBITDA. To the degree that it goes above $0.55, we're protected. That's more like $0.02. So maybe $5 million or so of risk. We use a combination of different tools and factors and things to manage our energy positions. So we're pretty confident that that number that we have between 40 and 60 million dollars of pure energy exposure to the elevated environment in the conflict is about right. And ideally we can perform better on the downside. And then on the secured question, we got, we're very, very low on our secured, you know, ratio right now, very favorable net position. We're not at anywhere near risk. And I'll tell you, we got significant liquidity, $1.5 billion liquidity. We manage our cash very conservatively in the organization. So from a balance sheet standpoint and managing the liquidity, we're in great shape.

Gordon Hardy (CEO)

Yeah. Hi, George Gordon here. So with regard to Fit-to-Win, you know, I think we're very well placed to deliver the 275 and maybe beyond this year. You know, the way we set up, the timing of it, you know, we're in line. Quarter one delivered to expectation. We did have a number of external events through the, through the tough winter, particularly in North America and some extra costs in Europe on the, on the closure and reconfiguration of the network that were once off in nature. And so you will See, the Fit-to-Win momentum build, like behind those numbers is, you know, very detailed plans, very detailed accountabilities, you know, you know, weekly tracking. So, you know, we feel we're in good shape on Fit to Win and as ever, where we're always looking at, you know, new opportunities that are identified and ways to strip waste and inefficiencies out. So we'll be obviously pushing for a higher number. But we're, you know, we're confident in that 275 number with regard to volume. Yes. Sorry. Yeah, go ahead, George.

George Stephous (Analyst)

You got it. And what are you seeing so far in 2Q1 volume? What have you committed to the board? Thank you.

Gordon Hardy (CEO)

So, you know, there Q1 volumes off about 8% in the Americas and let me break that down and you know, about 7% percent in Europe. It's clear. Let me start with, with, with the Americas because it is a kind of a story of two hemispheres. Let me start in Brazil where, you know, the business is performing very strongly for us with beer volumes up mid single digits, nab up mid single digits, and food and spirits up low teens. So we're outperforming the market and in all categories in Brazil. And the team there has done an excellent job in executing Fit to Win to become much more competitive and has already entered what I would consider the profitable growth horizon of our strategy. And an interesting fact. Brazil is no more profitable in 2026 than when it had two fewer major competitors a number of years ago. And we expect Brazil to have another very strong volume and financial year. If I move northwest to Andean, again, performing very strongly for us, outperforming the market in all categories, delivering mid single digit growth. And we're expecting a very strong second half and full year in that business. We're also executing incredibly well our Fit to Win program in Andean. And I would consider that market well advanced in the profitable growth horizon in Americas North. You know, our teams are executing well and addressing, you know, very effectively kind of long run structural issues in that business. Yeah. And getting good results thereof. And so while volumes were down 8%, let me break that down, about 3% of that 8% was wine volume. We that was not viable and was a barrier to us getting a much leaner network in place. And along the lines of our EP edict, we've taken that out of the business. There was about 3% of Spirit's customers destocking in the face of high distributor volumes. We know that is a temporary piece and There was about 2% in what I would call missed beer volume due to those external disruptions. And we had a furnace repair. We expect another very strong financial year in North America. And indeed the first quarter EBIT in North America was the strongest in over eight years. If I look at America Central, we're on track for another strong year despite the macro challenges of tariff impact on beer and spirits exports. You know, we're executing very effectively there and we're driving costs and waste out and becoming much more competitive on the domestic market in beer, in food and in spirits to offset in part volumes lost in exports. But we expect a strong run home. So in essence, the Americas are performing strongly. We see the volumes coming through, we see the winds coming through with customers, and I'd reinforce that the Americas is about six to nine months ahead of Europe in terms of executing on Fit to Win. In Europe, overall demand was sluggish in the first quarter, particularly across spirits, wine and beer. However, food and nab held up really well. That said, there are pockets of growth for us, so we had a strong volume rebound in spirits in the UK up mid single digits and wine up about 11%, delivering a strong overall year on year volume growth in the first quarter in the uk. North Central Europe, which encompasses the Nordics, Germany Poland Poland for us performed strongly with very good growth in food up above mid single digit and nab the same. And we've picked up significant new pieces of business in north Central Europe, where I would say our Fit to Win program is most advanced in Europe. And we can see that competitiveness turning into profitable volume growth opportunities. So they're the two kind of best performing regions for us where the issues lay in volume were in Southwest Europe and Southeast Europe. And that is largely driven by wine, where demand continues to be soft down in the region overall of about 5%, where there's significant overcapacity and quite significant kind of price pressure in the first quarter. So the bright spot for us in Southeast Europe is food up about 10% and spirits up about 2. And RTD is actually growing quite nicely for us. But the main issue in Southwest Europe and Southeast Europe is wine and some spirits in France, as cognac continues to be impacted by lower export volumes. So Europe, we believe the tide is turning. And when we look at our forecast for quarter two, we expect to be up low single digits and then low to mid single digits for the back half of the year. And overall in Europe, I think we're having the highest rate of new business wins since pre Covid. And so that's very Encouraging. The one other marker that's that we keep an eye on is, you know, how many of our customers are returning. And, you know, we're having customers come back to us that, you know, we haven't done business with in a number of years. So when you put that all together and we look now at our new go to market approach and how effectively that's being implemented, we're confident we'll finish the year, you know, close to flat with sequential kind of volume growth now in each quarter. So that I hope that gives you a flavor. George,

George Stephous (Analyst)

I'll turn it over. Thanks so much.

OPERATOR

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Herklund with Turist Securities. Your line is open.

Mike Herklund (Analyst)

Yeah, thanks, Gordon, John and Chris for taking my questions. Gordon, just wanted to follow up with you on the new business wins across 15 accounts. And you said spanning all categories. Is that mostly Europe? Because you did send a lot of the commentary in terms of your response to George's question. Sounded like there's a lot of new business wins in Europe. So can you just comment about those new accounts, the breakdown between, let's say, Europe versus the Americas and what end markets you're really seeing that growth come from?

Gordon Hardy (CEO)

Yeah. So overall, that growth, if you were to annualize, it would make up about one and a half percent. So overall, and right now that split about 70, 75% Americas, you know, 25, 30% Europe. With Europe kind of building momentum, you know, we're seeing that in beer, we're seeing it in spirits, we're seeing it particularly in food and nab and in North America, for the first time, we're

Mike Herklund (Analyst)

starting to make inroads into RTDs. And as you know, due to a regulation change last year, it's given us the opportunity to enter the RTD market, which is a market that, you know, certainly in Anglo Saxon markets is growing in double digits. So, you know, the way we've set up our business and our sales forces and go to market is a category and sales combo. And so we see opportunities in each of the categories and we're executing those, I think, quite effectively. We expect that momentum of new business wins to continue as we translate cost reduction into competitiveness. And if I take people back to ide, the overall strategy is for us to get our cost base way down. And we're doing that. We still have quite a way to go to be the lowest cost producer, but we're making tremendous progress and then sharing some of that productivity with, with key strategic customers in exchange for profitable growth. And you're seeing that come clearly through in Brazil, a business that was really in a tough place two years ago and is now outperforming in all categories and a tremendous uplift in profitability over the last two years. We're seeing the same in the Andean where we're seeing, despite a tough macro environment, in Mexico, seeing the same dynamic. Winning more business, getting costs down, winning more business, improving the financial result. And particularly pleasing to us is North America, which, you know, for years has been a tough market. We're addressing finally some structural issues in that business, in that market and, you know, turning that into profitable growth with a number of, you know, really strong wins for us in North America. So we believe we're executing this strategy. What happened in Europe in the first quarter, you know, where we're mid to end of the network restructure and you know, the, I think the overcapacity in the Southwest and Southeast was an issue and then the energy on top is a bit of a hit, but it's not a knockout for us and we see a clear path to getting back to the kind of margins that that business can deliver. That's great, Calligra, thank you. And then just one quick follow up. Just, you know, you mentioned really focused on 2027 targets, including EBITDA, over 1.5 billion plus. Your 2026 guide is down about $100 million at the midpoint. So obviously that's a setback. Can you help us bridge how roughly how you intend to get to the Point 27 guide right now? And what levers do you have at your disposal to make up the shortfall? I know maybe not specifically going to provide guidance, just maybe walk us through some of the larger buckets that will help you get there, given the fact that 2026 is down 100 million.

OPERATOR

Yeah. So here's how we look at that. We are absolutely laser focused on our 2027, you know, investor day targets, of which one is 1.45 billion. Okay, there's no question that this, this is a setback this year, but we're, we're absolutely clear that we have a viable path to that 1.45 billion. And let me give you probably 2, 3, 3 points. We've already laid out that we have $150 million of fit to win to come in 2027. And a significant part of our business is in, has what we call PFS price adjustment formulas that are lag formulas that will allow us catch up on some of the inflation this, this year, in next year. And we're also, as I said, you know, starting to deliver and move in in more and more of the markets into the profitable growth phase of our strategy, which also should help us bridge that gap. Yeah, you know, we we've tended to outperform on Fit to Win. So there, there's also the opportunity to do better than that 150 and we're, we're, you know, we're ruthlessly focused on stripping waste and inefficiency out of the business and out of the chain. So, you know, when we put all that together. Yes. Is it a bit of a steeper climb, but absolutely achievable. And, you know, in every difficulty there's an opportunity. And I think the opportunity for us here is to even get more focused and to move even at a faster pace to get to where we need to go. Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Pitinari with Citi Investment Research. Her line is open.

Anthony Pitinari (Analyst)

Good morning. You know, Gordon John, it seems like, you know, you have these you've seen these periods in the past where you have, you know, oversupply in Southern Europe with, you know, maybe smaller producers in Italy and France. And I'm just wondering if you talk a little bit more about the competitive dynamics that you're seeing today and maybe how those period, maybe how those situations have sort of resolved themselves in the past. Are people I guess the basis of the question is you were break even in Europe in 1Q. I assume smaller producers are doing much worse. And I'm just curious how sustainable that's been historically. And then I guess related question is it fair to say you're giving up a little bit of share in Southern Europe and maintaining or maybe even growing in northern Europe?

OPERATOR

I'll touch base on that one, Anthony, just to talk about the competitive situation and kind of maybe do a compare and contrast. So, for example, if you go over to the Americas where, you know that a lot of the restructuring has occurred already, you know, we've taken out significant capacity, you know, we went from the low 90s to the upper 90s as far as capacity utilization, you know, in that set of markets. And now you see, you can see that on the bottom line, I mean, the performance of the Americas through Fit to Win and, you know, a good capacity balance in the marketplace, you know, our results are over the last year and a half, two years are up about 60% there. So you can see when there is a way, you know, the balance of these activities that it drives performance. If you compare that to Europe, you know, probably going into the year, and I think we brought this up during the last call, is that we were, you know, the market was probably more in the low 90s. Right. But there is significant amounts of announced capacity closures underway. You know, we're, as we said, we're going to complete the work that we're doing by midyear. We believe, from what we can see is even net of new capacity additions, you're getting into a very similar spot that you see in the Americas. So much more supply, demand, balance. And as a result, it gives us confidence that as we go forward, what we saw in the Americas, we could replicate over in Europe. And truly, yes, it's a more fragmented base in Europe than it is in the Americas. But if you look at the whole that capacity utilization roadmap seems to be, seems to be improving. Yeah. Just in addition to that, Anthony, you know, as we laid out at id, you know, our cost base was too high. We've made significant progress on that, you know, further along in the Americas, as I said. But we also see, you know, tremendous further opportunity to get our cost base way down. And, you know, that, that, that is a key focus from us so that we can compete and deliver our commitments in, in any environment. Yeah. So a bit to go there, but that is, that is fundamental to, to, to our strategy. And then, you know, where it. It's not really up to us to comment how anybody else is doing, but we're crystal clear on what we need to do. We're crystal clear on the point on the cost curve where we need to be at to grow profitably. And we are absolutely determined to get there and have a clear line of sight on how to do it. Your next question comes from the line of Josh Spector with ubs. Your line is open.

Gaurav Sharma

Good morning. This is Gaurav Sharma sitting in for Josh today. Sorry, we missed your name. This is Gaurav Sharma. Hi, Gaurav, how are you? Hi. Good. How are you guys doing?

Gordon Hardy (CEO)

I'm just wondering what the optimal utilization target for the European network is in a normal demand environment. And then if there's any additional facilities where you're considering idling versus permanent closures if the market just generally remains soft this year. Yeah. So clearly from an overall market utilization standpoint, as I mentioned just before, you see the Americas and the kind of an upper 90 utilization across the whole, you know, whole, you know, you know, marketplace would be our estimate. But when we talk about our own plants when we're running them, you know, something in the 90s, low 90s is a great place to be for a glass plant. And so, you know, if you're running, you know, maybe in the 80s or mid-80s or so, being able to get your utilization up into the 90s is a really good performance trend. You know, that's part of what we, when we get fit to win with it. The Total Organizational Effectiveness program is really about driving the productivity up and utilization levels within our own network. So that's where we're trying to drive that. And ultimately that gives you scale and allows you to complete, you know, continue to network, optimize within your system. When it comes to, you know, the overall, you know, how do you manage kind of a softer environment? You know, it is obviously you got to make a read on what you think that you need over the long term. Right. And you know, that has driven our own decisions around, you know, capacity rationalization over the last year or more. But you also have to say that you have to have some spare capabilities to be able to meet market growth and things like that. So, you know, if we go back a year and a half ago, we were probably, you know, we had about 13, 14% excess capacity in our overall network. And that's why we announced the larger restructuring, long term restructuring activities, you know, in the first quarter that was down to low single digits or so. So and then we're going to continue obviously to complete where we are over in Europe over the next few months or so here. So. So the idea is that we want, you know, we always want to have a couple percent of, you know, spare capacity to be able to take advantage of what Gordon was saying, which is as we grow our business, we want to be able to do that. But one of the things we did comment is, you know, we brought, you know, over in the Americas, for example, we are bringing back a previously, you know, shut down furnace, you know, to be able to meet. So you got the ability to flex a little bit on both sides.

Gaurav Sharma

Got it. Thank you. That was very helpful. And then just quick, quick follow up to that. You mentioned an extended price negotiation window in the release. I think you spoke about that at conference already. I was just wondering if this is done now or if there are negotiations still ongoing on that end.

John Hodrick (CFO)

Yeah, for us it's done. You know, usually the season kicks off kind of late October, early November. And you know, a big chunk of it is usually completed, you know, before year end. Some of it kind of runs on into, you know, the end of January. And I think the dynamic this year in Europe or last season in Europe was that, you know, there were deals done or you know, agreements kind of brought to near conclusion that that opened up again in January and February because particularly in southern Europe and southwestern Europe because of the spare capacity and you know, a number of players feeling they, they, they needed to keep their capacity full. And so you know, there was a bit of toing and froing and that, that extended down to sort of, I would say mid February last week in February, which was, which was an unusually long window. But that, that is, that is done. No, for sure. Yeah. Now there's always volume that's you know, not contracted in the open market and you know, but, but we're largely, largely done in our business. One thing I would add to that, and you saw that the volumes in Europe were down 7% in the first quarter and that we indicated that was concentrated in wine. When those negotiation windows extend like that, people tend to sit on the sideline on their orders. Right. Because they're waiting for the final deal. So one of the reasons we had a softer first quarter is because of this extended window and a lull in order activity. And so that's starting to normalize after that window was completed at the end of February. Yeah. And also, you know, Easter was later this year, which had an impact in Europe.

Arun Vishwanathan (Analyst)

Your next question comes from the line of Arun Vishwanathan with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Hope you guys are well. I guess I just want to go back to the. Good morning. The volume side. So I would agree that you do have a steep climb for next year given the 100 million shortfall this year. And you know, when we started this journey, a lot of the comments was non market dependent and volumes, you know, I guess, you know, you could still achieve your guidance with weak volumes, but it seems like volumes have been, you know, a bigger headwind than initially thought. So when you think about the 1 to 2% that you could be adding through new business wins, do you expect that to offset continued volumes decline, volume declines and should we just kind of assume maybe low single digit volume declines from here for the market, is there a path to actually reporting absolute 1 to 2% volume growth on a consistent basis? Or maybe you can just comment on some of those ideas. Thanks.

Gordon Hardy (CEO)

Yeah, yeah, thanks Harun. No, so yeah, I think it's fair to say over the last 15 months probably volumes had been below what we thought they might have been. We were expecting them to come to flat a bit sooner. You know, I think what's got in the way of that is, you know, the level of inventory in the total system in spirits, for example, and you know, markets like the US and, and China continuing to be soft. And then you have the continued decline in wine across both the Americas and Europe. And that probably has continued longer than we initially thought. So where we are is we really feel we've bottomed out. And so when we're talking about being flat, been close to flat year end and then kicking into one one and a half percent next year, that is net like that. That's a net position. So. And these new business wins, you know, they're, they're not small, fragmented customers, you know, they're, they're, they're largely, you know, of sizable customers with sizable volumes.

John Hodrick (CFO)

Yeah, you know, I would just add, you know, Rune, two points. One is, you know, if you look at some of our volume numbers, as Gordon had mentioned earlier, we intentionally did walk away from some low profit business. So you have to kind of consider that in there. And if you go back to our original strategy, we said, hey, we intended to be focusing on the cost and maintaining a stable top line while we're really focusing on cost. But now we're pivoting to that point where we believe, especially like we see in the Americas here and ultimately in Europe, that the competitiveness is improving which allows us the baseline to create the profitable growth. And so we're at that inflection point where it wasn't necessarily the primary focus of our strategy over the last 18 months. It's increasingly going forward because of the cost decisions that we're establishing.

Gordon Hardy (CEO)

Yeah, and Arun, I refer back to my earlier comments. You know, we're in markets like Brazil where we really nail the fit to win and translating that into, you know, being much more competitive. You know, our volumes are up mid single digits in beer nab and food and spirits and we're outperforming, you know, the market and all those categories. Likewise in the Andean and increasingly, you know, in North America right now we can sell all the beer that we can produce and you know that we have pockets in, as I said in north central Europe where you know, we've, in that particular region we've had a 7% uplift year to date. So you know, the entire strategy of getting more competitive and then translating that, working with key customers into more profitable growth, there's numerous clear examples of that across the business. And you know, we're absolutely focused on executing that strategy with more rigor.

Arun Vishwanathan (Analyst)

Okay, appreciate the comment there.

Gordon Hardy (CEO)

I guess one other point I'd make, you know, we continue to see the cost gap between cans and glass narrowing and we've absolutely seen an upturn in interest from beer customers to accessing more glass. And again, that was one of the premises we had that as you close that gap, you would curtail the shift from glass to cans and actually reverse it. And we're seeing that happen. And certainly the interest in beer for glass, even in mainstream glass, is a much different dynamic to last year.

Arun Vishwanathan (Analyst)

Okay, great. I appreciate that. I guess what I'm observing is that the market appears to be declining a little bit faster than maybe what the capacity rationalization is, and maybe that. And so you have to take downtime and you have to make these decisions to exit businesses that maybe were unforeseen a year or two ago when you, when you initially put together fit to win. And that's maybe causing the shortfall. Do you, do you envision a time period in the future where we won't have these, you know, supply demand imbalances and oversupply situations? Because I think just even a two year ago, years ago, Europe was considered balanced and North America was a little oversupplied. And then you had to kind of shut some capacity in North America. And now because of the volume declines in Europe, widened spirits and so on, new capacity additions, that region is oversupplied. So is there ever a period where you envision again, the capacity rationalization kind of being in line with demand growth or, or maybe demand growth kind of re accelerating so we wouldn't have these issues of oversupply? I know it's kind of a longer term question, but it seems to be the main issue here.

Gordon Hardy (CEO)

Yeah, look, I think we all live in a very dynamic world now with a lot of volatility. And you know, I think over a cycle of a decade, there's also, there'll be periods of where it's perfectly matched up and there'll be periods where it's not. And then you've got to make a decision. Is that a short term mismatch or is it a fundamental match that's out of position where you can't make an economic return on that asset? And that's always a dynamic question in any business. I would say we feel good about where we are in terms of our capacity, particularly in the Americas. And as John said, there's even opportunities to bring some capacity back up to fill demand for profitable volume. And where we are in Europe, we should have all of the announced capacity curtailments completed and clear of that by the half year. And I think that puts us in good stead. I can't speak for the rest of the market, but, you know, Our S&DS or supply and demand should be well and balanced. And then it's about executing, you know, productivity, quality and service levels to the customer. Yeah. So as you said, it's a longer term question, but it really depends on volatility and dynamics over an extended period. Yeah.

John Hodrick (CFO)

The one thing I would add, Arun, you know, specifically to our own plan is, you know, we did increase our fit to win target in the face of some additional commercial pressures. And we believe that, you know, protects our position to our targets. But that also did include a little bit scaling up of some of the restructuring from what we originally had to be able to be able to be nimble to that. So as we stand here right now, you know, we believe that the fit to win actions, you know, are sufficient to be able to address, you know, through our horizon here, you know, our next year's target. Understanding the other extra $100 million we're dealing with this year, it's more of a temporary phenomenon with a good ability for recovery through PAFs and things like that in the future.

Gordon Hardy (CEO)

I think one additional kind of thought on that run is, you know, portfolio momentum is also a part of how you maximize, you know, the value of your capacity and, you know, as opportunities arise in the markets to, you know, shed unprofitable volume like we did in wine in North America in the first quarter, and bring in more profitable volume, you know, higher margin volume, more premium volume. That's also a way of, you know, sweating your capacity much, much harder. And I think we're getting much better at that and making those calls and, you know, starting that, that sort of mix shift that we, we outlined in Investor Day as well as part of our strategy.

Chris Manuel

I'll now turn the call back over to Chris Manuel for closing remarks. Thanks, Kate. That concludes our earnings call. Please note, our second quarter call is currently scheduled for Wednesday, July 29th. And remember, make it a memorable moment by choosing safe, sustainable glass. Thank you,

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