COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. Just Missed Revenue By 20%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (HKG:1138) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 3.7% to HK$18.78. Revenues were CN¥7.3b, 20% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a statutory per-share loss of CN¥0.83 being in line with what the analysts anticipated. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation's eleven analysts is for revenues of CN¥34.4b in 2026. This reflects a huge 35% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 89% to CN¥1.90. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥33.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.76 in 2026. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.

Check out our latest analysis for COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of HK$23.51, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation analyst has a price target of HK$29.95 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$13.48. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 50% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 13% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.7% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation's earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$23.51, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.