Results: Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. Confounded Analyst Expectations With A Surprise Profit

It's been a good week for Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:XERS) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 8.2% to US$6.63. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 3.9% to hit US$83m. Xeris Biopharma Holdings also reported a statutory profit of US$0.01, which was a nice improvement from the loss that the analysts were predicting. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Xeris Biopharma Holdings after the latest results.

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Following the latest results, Xeris Biopharma Holdings' six analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$383.9m in 2026. This would be a major 22% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 69% to US$0.12. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$383.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.10 in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a nice increase in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

Check out our latest analysis for Xeris Biopharma Holdings

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$11.29, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Xeris Biopharma Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$18.00 and the most bearish at US$8.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 30% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 37% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 8.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that Xeris Biopharma Holdings is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Xeris Biopharma Holdings' earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$11.29, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Xeris Biopharma Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Xeris Biopharma Holdings that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.