Traeger, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Traeger, Inc. (NYSE:COOK) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.7% to US$41.72 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$94m were what the analysts expected, Traeger surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.08 per share, instead of the previously forecast loss. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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After the latest results, the consensus from Traeger's eight analysts is for revenues of US$472.0m in 2026, which would reflect a measurable 7.5% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 80% to US$8.03. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$472.7m and losses of US$15.58 per share in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed Traeger'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a very favorable reduction to the loss per share forecasts in particular.

See our latest analysis for Traeger

These new estimates led to the consensus price target rising 9.3% to US$44.64, with lower forecast losses suggesting things could be looking up for Traeger. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Traeger, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$75.00 and the most bearish at US$37.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 6.6% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 9.9% decline in revenue until the end of 2026. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 4.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Traeger to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Traeger going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Traeger that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.