Donald Trump Wants Prediction Markets To 'Thrive', But AGA Boss Bill Miller Disagrees: The CFTC Is 'A Rogue Agency'

American Gaming Association CEO Bill Miller called the CFTC a “rogue agency” on CNBC Thursday, accusing it of letting prediction markets run national sportsbooks with little oversight.

The AGA estimates states and tribes have lost more than $1 billion in tax revenue to platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, up from a $500 million estimate in February.

Miller said this is not just a casino-industry gripe.

He pointed to 41 state attorneys general of “every political stripe” who have formally told the CFTC it is overstepping into sportsbook regulation, a rare bipartisan coalition spanning red and blue states.

He also leaned on a warning from Charles Schwab’s CEO, who has said young investors may start treating a prediction market account as something to run alongside their 401(k) and brokerage account. Miller called that crossover reckless.

What The Market Says

A Polymarket contract on whether a law banning sports prediction markets is enacted in 2026 sits around 20%. The market has climbed from roughly 10% in April, though volume remains light at about $14,000.

The CFTC moved to formalize its grip over prediction markets this week, sending a draft prediction market rule to the White House. It would be the first time federal regulators have written specific rules for contracts like Kalshi’s and Polymarket’s, rather than just claiming authority in court.

In a May 26 Truth Social post, President Donald Trump gave a full-throated defense of the prediction market industry, insisting the CFTC keep "exclusive authority" over platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket and branding opponents including Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Walz, and JB Pritzker "SCUM."

Former CFTC chair Gary Gensler has previously said that the CFTC was never meant to regulate sports betting.

The Ticker Angle

The fight is awkward for the AGA’s own members.

DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) launched a standalone Predictions product in late 2025 that routes orders through CFTC-regulated exchanges rather than state sportsbooks, and the company said it reaches 38 states, including no-betting markets like California, Texas, Georgia and Florida. It filed fresh sports event contract templates with the CFTC on May 22.

FanDuel, part of Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT), built a parallel product with CME Group that offers sports contracts only in states without legal online betting. Both operators are using the federal route the AGA is fighting, targeting the same no-betting states at the center of the dispute.

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