Elon Musk's SpaceX Cuts IPO Target To $1.8 Trillion: What's The Prediction Market Forecast?

Elon Musk’s SpaceX is targeting a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion in what may be the largest IPO ever, down from an earlier goal above $2 trillion, according to Bloomberg.

The cut follows heavy losses from SpaceX’s February merger with xAI. The company posted a $4.28 billion net loss in the first quarter of 2026, with AI infrastructure driving most of the burn, according to the S-1 filing.

Investors are piling in anyway. Since mid-December, when Musk first confirmed IPO plans, a net $14 billion has flowed into three mutual funds and four ETFs holding slices of the rocket maker, per Morningstar data via the Financial Times.

Prediction market traders are going the other way.

Polymarket’s “SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap Above” contract currently assigns 63% odds that the company closes its first trading day above $2.2 trillion.

SpaceX has reportedly earmarked up to 30% of IPO shares for retail investors, roughly three times the typical mega-cap allocation.

Retail Piles Into Proxy Funds

The Destiny Tech100 Fund (NYSE:DXYZ) surged 27% earlier this month, as investors raced to get exposure to the space company. The Tema Space Innovators ETF (NYSE:NASA), which launched in late March, tripled its assets to roughly $1.3 billion the week SpaceX filed its S-1.

The ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF (NASDAQ:XOVR) holds SpaceX through a special-purpose vehicle and carries approximately $292 million in exposure, or roughly 23% of the fund, according to ERShares.

Telecoms firm EchoStar Corp (NASDAQ:SATS), which received SpaceX equity in a spectrum sale, is up over 500% in the past year, the Financial Times reported. Auditor KPMG flagged substantial doubt about EchoStar’s ability to continue as a going concern in its 2025 annual report.

A Spaghetti Cannon Of New ETFs

Morningstar’s Ben Johnson likened the wave of new SpaceX-themed ETF filings to an “ETF spaghetti cannon” approach of “ready, fire, aim.”

Neuberger Berman’s Renos Savvides told the Financial Times the speculative activity “feels a bit like 2021,” the year before a major market slump.

SpaceX is expected to begin formal IPO marketing as soon as June 4 with pricing as early as June 11.

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