Carlisle Companies (CSL) Stock After Recent Pullback Is There Still Room For Upside

• Wondering whether Carlisle Companies at around US$340.99 is priced for opportunity or already reflecting its strengths? This article walks through what the current share price could mean for you as an investor focused on value.
• The stock is up 3.8% year to date, even though it is down 0.5% over the past week, 2.9% over the past month, and 5.9% over the last year, while still showing a 46.6% gain over three years and 97.7% over five years.
• Recent share price moves sit against a backdrop of ongoing business updates and broader sector news, which can change how the market views Carlisle Companies' risk and opportunity profile. Understanding what has actually changed in the business versus short term sentiment is key before making any valuation judgement.
• Carlisle Companies currently holds a value score of 6/6. The sections that follow break this down across several common valuation approaches and then conclude with a way to put all of these valuation signals into a single, clearer story.

Find out why Carlisle Companies's -5.9% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Carlisle Companies Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model projects a company’s future cash flows and then discounts them back to today’s dollars to estimate what the business could be worth right now.

For Carlisle Companies, the model uses last twelve months Free Cash Flow of about $929.0 million in a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity framework. Analysts provide explicit Free Cash Flow estimates out to 2030, with projected Free Cash Flow of $1,155.0 million in that year. Beyond the analyst horizon, Simply Wall St extrapolates further annual cash flows based on the pattern implied by the earlier years.

All of those projected cash flows, along with an assumed value beyond the forecast period, are discounted back to the present to arrive at an estimated intrinsic value of $464.26 per share. Compared with a current share price around $340.99, the model indicates that Carlisle Companies trades at a 26.6% discount to this DCF estimate, which on this approach characterizes the stock as undervalued.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Carlisle Companies is undervalued by 26.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 46 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Carlisle Companies.

Approach 2: Carlisle Companies Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies like Carlisle Companies, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of current earnings. It quickly links the share price to the business’s profit, which is often a key driver of long term returns.

What counts as a normal or fair P/E depends on how the market views a company’s growth prospects and risk. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher P/E, while lower growth or higher risk usually goes with a lower P/E.

Carlisle Companies currently trades on a P/E of about 18.9x, compared with an industry average of roughly 20.7x and a peer average around 44.1x. Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio of 25.6x, which is the P/E level suggested by factors such as Carlisle Companies earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk characteristics.

This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple peer or industry comparison, because it adjusts for those company specific features instead of assuming all businesses deserve the same multiple. Since the Fair Ratio of 25.6x is above the current P/E of 18.9x, this approach points to the stock being undervalued on earnings.

Result: UNDERVALUED

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 20 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Carlisle Companies Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Meet Narratives, a simple tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you attach your own story about Carlisle Companies to specific assumptions for future revenue, earnings, margins and a fair value. You can then compare that fair value to today’s price so you can judge whether the stock looks attractive or stretched. Your Narrative automatically refreshes as new news or earnings arrive. For example, one investor might build a Narrative closer to the higher analyst fair value of about US$450.00 based on confidence in buybacks and margin expansion, while another might anchor around the lower US$360.00 view if more focused on pricing pressure and reroofing dependence. This gives you a clear, side by side sense of how different perspectives translate into different valuation outcomes.

Do you think there's more to the story for Carlisle Companies? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com