Ernest Borel Holdings Limited's (HKG:1856) 26% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Despite an already strong run, Ernest Borel Holdings Limited (HKG:1856) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 26% in the last thirty days. While recent buyers may be laughing, long-term holders might not be as pleased since the recent gain only brings the stock back to where it started a year ago.

After such a large jump in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Ernest Borel Holdings is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 5.3x, considering almost half the companies in Hong Kong's Luxury industry have P/S ratios below 0.7x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

View our latest analysis for Ernest Borel Holdings

What Does Ernest Borel Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Ernest Borel Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

Ernest Borel Holdings' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 24% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 26% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 12% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Ernest Borel Holdings is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Ernest Borel Holdings' P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Ernest Borel Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Ernest Borel Holdings (at least 1 which can't be ignored), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If you're unsure about the strength of Ernest Borel Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.