Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited's (HKG:3808) Stock Has Seen Strong Momentum: Does That Call For Deeper Study Of Its Financial Prospects?

Most readers would already be aware that Sinotruk (Hong Kong)'s (HKG:3808) stock increased significantly by 11% over the past three months. As most would know, fundamentals are what usually guide market price movements over the long-term, so we decided to look at the company's key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. Specifically, we decided to study Sinotruk (Hong Kong)'s ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

See our latest analysis for Sinotruk (Hong Kong)

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Sinotruk (Hong Kong) is:

14% = CN¥6.8b ÷ CN¥48b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each HK$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made HK$0.14 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Sinotruk (Hong Kong)'s Earnings Growth And 14% ROE

To begin with, Sinotruk (Hong Kong) seems to have a respectable ROE. Even when compared to the industry average of 12% the company's ROE looks quite decent. As you might expect, the 2.6% net income decline reported by Sinotruk (Hong Kong) is a bit of a surprise. So, there might be some other aspects that could explain this. These include low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

So, as a next step, we compared Sinotruk (Hong Kong)'s performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 11% over the last few years.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Has the market priced in the future outlook for 3808? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

In spite of a normal three-year median payout ratio of 48% (that is, a retention ratio of 52%), the fact that Sinotruk (Hong Kong)'s earnings have shrunk is quite puzzling. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

In addition, Sinotruk (Hong Kong) has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 55%. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 16%.

Summary

On the whole, we do feel that Sinotruk (Hong Kong) has some positive attributes. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a high ROE and and a high reinvestment rate. We believe that there might be some outside factors that could be having a negative impact on the business. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.