Optimistic Investors Push Grace Life-tech Holdings Limited (HKG:2112) Shares Up 30% But Growth Is Lacking

Grace Life-tech Holdings Limited (HKG:2112) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 30% after a shaky period beforehand. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 35% over that time.

After such a large jump in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Grace Life-tech Holdings is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 1.7x, considering almost half the companies in Hong Kong's Trade Distributors industry have P/S ratios below 0.3x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.

View our latest analysis for Grace Life-tech Holdings

How Grace Life-tech Holdings Has Been Performing

For instance, Grace Life-tech Holdings' receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

Grace Life-tech Holdings' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 37% decrease to the company's top line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 35% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 3.1% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Grace Life-tech Holdings' P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What Does Grace Life-tech Holdings' P/S Mean For Investors?

Grace Life-tech Holdings' P/S is on the rise since its shares have risen strongly. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We've established that Grace Life-tech Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Plus, you should also learn about these 5 warning signs we've spotted with Grace Life-tech Holdings (including 3 which make us uncomfortable).

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.