Optimistic Investors Push Great Wall Terroir Holdings Limited (HKG:524) Shares Up 27% But Growth Is Lacking

Those holding Great Wall Terroir Holdings Limited (HKG:524) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 27% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 27% in the last year.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Great Wall Terroir Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.7x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Telecom industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 1x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

View our latest analysis for Great Wall Terroir Holdings

What Does Great Wall Terroir Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?

For example, consider that Great Wall Terroir Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Great Wall Terroir Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 8.8% decrease to the company's top line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 22% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 4.0% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Great Wall Terroir Holdings' P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What Does Great Wall Terroir Holdings' P/S Mean For Investors?

Great Wall Terroir Holdings appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

The fact that Great Wall Terroir Holdings currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Great Wall Terroir Holdings has 3 warning signs (and 2 which are concerning) we think you should know about.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.