GT Gold Holdings Limited's (HKG:8299) 29% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

The GT Gold Holdings Limited (HKG:8299) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 29%. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 2.5% in the last twelve months.

Following the firm bounce in price, GT Gold Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 18.5x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 10x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

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GT Gold Holdings certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for GT Gold Holdings

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, GT Gold Holdings would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 147% last year. Still, EPS has barely risen at all from three years ago in total, which is not ideal. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 18% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

In light of this, it's alarming that GT Gold Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From GT Gold Holdings' P/E?

GT Gold Holdings' P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that GT Gold Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with GT Gold Holdings, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.