What to Expect From Assurant's Q1 2025 Earnings Report

Atlanta, Georgia-based Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) provides risk management solutions in the housing and lifestyle markets, protecting where people live and the goods they buy. Valued at a market cap of $9.6 billion, the company offers various solutions such as mobile device protection, extended service contracts, renters insurance, lender-placed insurance, and vehicle protection services. It is expected to announce its fiscal Q1 earnings for 2025 after the market closes on Tuesday, May 6. 

Prior to this event, analysts project this insurance company to report a profit of $3 per share, down 37.2% from $4.78 per share in the year-ago quarter. The company has a solid trajectory of consistently beating Wall Street’s bottom-line estimates in each of the last four quarters. Its earnings of $4.79 per share in the previous quarter outpaced the consensus estimates by a notable margin of 10.6%. 

For the full year, analysts expect AIZ to report EPS of $16.18, down 2.8% from $16.64 in fiscal 2024. Nonetheless, its EPS is expected to grow 18.1% year over year to $19.11 in fiscal 2026.  

Assurant has outpaced the S&P 500 Index's ($SPX) 6% gain over the past 52 weeks, with its shares up 8.4% over the same time frame. However, it has lagged behind the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLF) 16% rise over the same time period. 

AIZ released its Q4 results on Feb. 11. The company’s revenue grew 4.1% year-over-year to $3.1 billion and surpassed Wall Street's expectations. A rise in net earned premiums and higher fees and other income led to its top-line growth. Moreover, its adjusted EPS rose 4.6% to $4.79, beating analyst estimates by 10.6%. Profitability was further supported by a 5.7% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA.  

However, despite these strong results, its shares plunged 2.6% the following day. Investor sentiment might have been dampened by the company’s 2025 outlook. For fiscal 2025, AIZ expects just a modest growth in adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS, or high single-digit growth when excluding a $107 million benefit from favorable prior-year development in 2024. Additionally, the company warned that California wildfire losses could near or exceed the $150 million reinsurance threshold, posing a risk to global housing earnings. 

Wall Street analysts are moderately optimistic about Assurant’s stock, with a "Moderate Buy" rating overall. Among seven analysts covering the stock, four recommend "Strong Buy," one indicates a “Moderate Buy,” and two suggest “Hold.” The mean price target for AIZ is $227.40, which indicates a 19% potential upside from the current levels.