Hanover Insurance Set to Report Q1 Earnings: What to Expect

The Hanover Insurance Group THG is expected to register an improvement in its top and bottom lines when it reports first-quarter 2025 results on April 30, after the closing bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for THG’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.7 billion, indicating a 6.5% increase from the year-ago reported figure. The consensus estimate for the bottom line is pegged at $3.58 per share. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 144.4%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for THG’s first-quarter earnings has moved south by 8.2% in the past 30 days. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

What the Zacks Model Unveils for THG

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for THG this time around. This is because a stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) that increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case as you can see below.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: THG has an Earnings ESP of -7.68%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $3.31 is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.58.

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Zacks Rank: THG carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Shape THG’s Q1 Results

Reduction in Personal Lines policy count in the Midwest by 10.2% and the implementation of new or enhanced deductibles across the majority of its Personal Lines book last year are likely to benefit the to-be-reported quarter’s results. 

The Core Commercial segment is likely to have benefited from prudent underwriting and strategic middle market property actions, including its move away from accounts that do not meet its underwriting standards. 

An increase in submissions, given strong market penetration and effective execution of technology, is likely to have aided small commercial business performance. Improved business mix, including the retention of the most profitable property business, is likely to have favored the middle market.   

Specialty is expected to have benefited from strategic investments in talent and technology and prudent underwriting.  

The Personal Lines is expected to have benefited from improved pricing, solid retention in the homeowners' line and shifting geographic mix to a more balanced portfolio. Segment combined ratio is likely to have improved due to better pricing in both personal auto and homeowners, as well as lower claim frequency. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for segment combined ratio is pegged at 94, an improvement of 700 basis points from year-ago reported number.

Net investment income in the to-be-reported quarter is likely to have benefited from higher bond reinvestment rates, strategic repositioning and higher cash flows. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $102 million, up 13.3% from year-ago reported number.

However, the expense ratio is likely to have deteriorated, given higher variable expenses.

Continued share buybacks are likely to have added to the bottom line.

Stocks to Consider

Here are three insurance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Enact Holdings ACT has an Earnings ESP of +2.68% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.12, indicating a year-over-year increase of 7.7%

ACT’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters, while missing in one.

Assurant AIZ has an Earnings ESP of +1.53% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $3.00, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 37.2%.

AIZ’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

CNO Financial Group CNO has an Earnings ESP of +1.69% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at 79 cents, indicating a year-over-year increase of 51.9%.

CNO’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters, while missing in one.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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