Crosstec Group Holdings Limited (HKG:3893) Stock's 31% Dive Might Signal An Opportunity But It Requires Some Scrutiny

To the annoyance of some shareholders, Crosstec Group Holdings Limited (HKG:3893) shares are down a considerable 31% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 79% share price decline.

After such a large drop in price, given about half the companies operating in Hong Kong's Consumer Services industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") above 1x, you may consider Crosstec Group Holdings as an attractive investment with its 0.3x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/S.

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See our latest analysis for Crosstec Group Holdings

How Crosstec Group Holdings Has Been Performing

With revenue growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Crosstec Group Holdings has been doing very well. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is low because investors think this strong revenue growth might actually underperform the broader industry in the near future. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Crosstec Group Holdings would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 151%. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow revenue by 64% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have definitely welcomed those medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is only predicted to deliver 14% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is stronger based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

In light of this, it's peculiar that Crosstec Group Holdings' P/S sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently some shareholders believe the recent performance has exceeded its limits and have been accepting significantly lower selling prices.

The Final Word

Crosstec Group Holdings' P/S has taken a dip along with its share price. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We're very surprised to see Crosstec Group Holdings currently trading on a much lower than expected P/S since its recent three-year growth is higher than the wider industry forecast. When we see strong revenue with faster-than-industry growth, we assume there are some significant underlying risks to the company's ability to make money which is applying downwards pressure on the P/S ratio. It appears many are indeed anticipating revenue instability, because the persistence of these recent medium-term conditions would normally provide a boost to the share price.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 5 warning signs with Crosstec Group Holdings (at least 4 which make us uncomfortable), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you're unsure about the strength of Crosstec Group Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.