UPS (UPS) Trims 20,000 Jobs Amid Amazon (AMZN) Slowdown and Tariff Pressures

Barchart·04/29/2025 20:26:08

United Parcel Service (UPS) will cut 20,000 jobs and shutter 73 facilities to lower costs amid an uncertain economic outlook and a potential shipping slowdown from its largest customer, Amazon (AMZN). This landmark move makes UPS the first major U.S. company to enact largescale layoffs in response to tariff-driven trade disruptions. Chief Executive Carol Tomé said the world is facing trade shocks not seen in over a century, prompting the delivery giant to reconfigure its network, accelerate automation and divest non-core assets. Despite exceeding first-quarter profit expectations, UPS declined to reaffirm its full-year guidance due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. Market Overview:

• UPS cuts 20,000 jobs and closes 73 facilities to save costs.
• First major U.S. firm to enact layoffs tied to tariff-driven trade slowdown.
• Expected $3.5 billion in savings for 2025 through restructuring efforts.

Key Points:

• Q1 revenue of $21.5 billion beat estimates, driven by U.S. air cargo and pricing gains.
• Adjusted EPS of $1.49 topped forecasts, reflecting operational efficiencies.
• Full-year outlook withdrawn as management seeks clarity on trade impacts.

Looking Ahead:

• Volume declines from Amazon, Temu and Shein highlight tariff pressures.
• Lease, severance and automation expenses of $400–600 million planned for 2025.
• Macro clarity will be essential before reinstating guidance and capital plans.

Bull Case:

• UPS’s decisive move to cut 20,000 jobs and shutter 73 facilities is a proactive strategy to align costs with anticipated lower demand, positioning the company to protect margins and emerge stronger from tariff-driven trade disruptions.
• The restructuring is expected to deliver $3.5 billion in savings for 2025, which can be reinvested in automation, technology, and higher-margin business segments, enhancing long-term operational efficiency and competitiveness.
• First-quarter results beat profit expectations, with adjusted EPS of $1.49 and a rise in U.S. air cargo and pricing gains, demonstrating UPS’s ability to adapt and drive profitability even as volumes decline.
• Reducing reliance on Amazon-historically a low-margin customer-allows UPS to focus on more profitable segments like healthcare and SMBs, improving revenue quality and customer mix.
• Accelerated automation and asset divestitures could further streamline operations, making UPS more agile and resilient in a volatile global trade environment.
• Investors responded positively to the restructuring plan, with shares rising on the announcement, reflecting confidence in management’s ability to navigate uncertainty and deliver cost savings.

Bear Case:

• The large-scale layoffs and facility closures signal significant demand headwinds and may foreshadow deeper structural challenges for UPS if global trade and e-commerce volumes remain depressed due to tariffs.
• Withdrawing full-year guidance amid macro uncertainty introduces greater earnings visibility risk, making it harder for investors to assess future performance and capital allocation decisions.
• Volume declines from Amazon, Temu, and Shein highlight the risk of overdependence on a few large customers and the vulnerability of UPS’s business model to shifts in partner strategies and trade policy.
• Restructuring costs of $400–600 million in 2025, along with severance and lease expenses, may weigh on near-term profitability and cash flow, offsetting some of the projected savings.
• Job cuts and network reductions could impact service quality, employee morale, and UPS’s ability to quickly scale up if demand rebounds, potentially ceding market share to more nimble competitors.
• Ongoing tariff-driven trade disruptions and e-commerce slowdowns may persist longer than anticipated, limiting the effectiveness of cost-cutting measures and prolonging the recovery timeline.

First-quarter results showed U.S. domestic segment revenue rising 1.4% to $14.46 billion, even as overall volumes declined. UPS’s prior cuts of 12,000 jobs and its $1.13 billion capital expenditure hint at the scale of adjustments underway to protect margins. As tariffs squeeze trade flows and weigh on e-commerce from China-linked sellers, UPS’s swift network overhaul and cost initiatives will be critical. Investors will watch whether the $3.5 billion in planned savings materializes and how the company navigates ongoing uncertainty to restore confidence.

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