Elon Musk Out As Tesla CEO In 2025? Prediction Markets Put Little Faith In WSJ Report, Here Are The Top Replacement Picks

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) has shut down a report that the company was actively looking to replace CEO Elon Musk.

While it remains to be seen if the report was factual or not, prediction markets saw odds that Musk leaves the company in 2025 spike.

What Happened: Facing weaker financials and seeing CEO Musk spend more time with the White House working for the Department of Government Efficiency, Tesla's board of directors began searching for a new CEO about a month ago, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

The board reportedly told Musk he needed to devote more time to Tesla.

Following the release of the report, Tesla and Musk both denied that a search ever took place.

"It is an extremely bad breach of ethics that the @WSJ would publish a deliberately false article and fail to include an unequivocal denial beforehand by the Tesla board of directors!" Musk tweeted while sharing the denial from Tesla's X account.

On prediction market Kalshi, the odds that Musk would be out as Tesla CEO in 2025 spiked to 19%. At the time of writing, the odds now stand at 16%. A high of 30% for the prediction market was hit back in June 2024 at 30%.

Kalshi also offers a prediction market on whether Musk will leave Tesla before 2027. This market has much higher chance at 35%, a figure up six points from yesterday.

Kalshi has many other Tesla- and Musk-related prediction markets open, including when Musk will leave DOGE, if Musk will remain the wealthiest person in 2025, when Musk will become a trillionaire, and if Musk will buy a major sports team.

On prediction market Polymarket, the market for Musk to be out as Tesla CEO in 2025 spiked to 19% last night and now sits at 15%.

Polymarket also has a market for who will replace Musk as CEO of Tesla. The number one answer is no CEO announced. Following that option are two candidates who have more than 1%.

JB Straubel is listed with odds of 3% as the favorite. Straubel is the former chief technology officer of Tesla who spent 15 years with the company. Straubel is sometimes credited with a co-founder role for the company, given his early commitment to Tesla's development.

Omead Afshar is listed with odds of 2%. Afshar currently works at Tesla and is considered a close Musk ally and vice president of the electric vehicle company.

Listed beyond those two favorites are many candidates at odds of 1% that include the likes of Waymo CEO Tekedra Mawakana, General Motors CEO Mary Barra, Advanced Micro Devices CEO Lisa Su, Ford Motor Co. CEO Jim Farley, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi and SpaceX CEO Gwynne Shotwell.

Another polarizing figure at 1% odds is Zach Kirkhorn, who worked at Tesla from 2010 to 2023. Kirkhorn served as Tesla's chief financial officer from 2019 to 2023.

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Why It's Important: Tesla's brand may have been damaged by Musk and his push into politics. However, when people think of Tesla, they think of Musk.

Musk is also a key shareholder of Tesla. Without Musk's approval, it seems rather unlikely that he would leave as CEO.

The self-proclaimed wearer of many hats serves in leadership roles at several companies including Tesla, SpaceX and X, which does limit his full-time commitment to any company. With his role at the Department of Government Efficiency, Musk was less involved with Tesla.

Musk recently promised that he would spend less time at DOGE beginning May and spend more time at Tesla.

With new models coming, robotaxis and the Optimus Bot, Musk has expressed his optimism for Tesla and it's unlikely he would leave now.

Someday, Musk will leave Tesla or at least scale back his role. That is a day that Tesla shareholders and fans are likely not prepared for.

TSLA Price Action: Tesla stock closed Thursday at $280.52 versus a 52-week trading range of $157.40 to $488.54. Tesla stock is down 25.5% year-to-date in 2025.

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